CLEBrowns
1-4
16
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
82°F
10 mph
20
PHIEagles
2-2
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
82°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
4
0
6
10
Eagles
0
10
3
7
20
Spread
+8.5
Total
UNDER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
244
372
Total Plays
53
62
Yards / Play
4.6
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.10
-0.02
Passing Yards
144
256
Comp/Att
16/23(70%)
16/25(64%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
10.2
EPA / Pass
+0.07
+0.29
Rushing Yards
100
116
Rush Attempts
25
36
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
19
Passing 1st downs
7
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
25%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-24
-8
Sack EPA
-5.51
-2.07
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
--
40
Penalty EPA
--
-3.92
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-8.5
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market76.8%
Model76.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+143
Home nfelo
1,551
Away nfelo
1,479
Home Field
+58.8
Base HFA
+45.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+13.1
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+12.5
Home QB Adjustment
-9.2
Away QB Adjustment
-21.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
204.6
Model Spread
-8.5
Quarterbacks
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-21.8
J. Hurts
Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
-9.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
1
Yards / Game
28
1
Passing Yards / Game
12
14
Rushing Yards / Game
29
4
EPA
EPA / Play
32
1
EPA / Pass
32
1
EPA / Rush
22
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
12
Interceptions / Game
32
6
Fumbles / Game
17
1
Turnover EPA / Game
1
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
8
4th Down Efficiency
18
21
RZ Efficiency
27
6
Eagles Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
27
Yards / Game
8
18
Passing Yards / Game
25
10
Rushing Yards / Game
2
21
EPA
EPA / Play
7
9
EPA / Pass
7
21
EPA / Rush
4
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
2
Interceptions / Game
3
32
Fumbles / Game
8
8
Turnover EPA / Game
31
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
6
4th Down Efficiency
3
3
RZ Efficiency
10
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Eagles
3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U