CLEBrowns
9-4
20
TBD
MetLife Stadium
36°F
06
NYGGiants
5-8
TBD
MetLife Stadium
36°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
13
0
7
20
Giants
3
0
0
3
6
Spread
-6.5
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
392
288
Total Plays
63
54
Yards / Play
6.2
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.19
-0.07
Passing Yards
286
214
Comp/Att
27/32(84%)
19/32(59%)
Yards / Pass
8.9
6.7
EPA / Pass
+0.64
+0.05
Rushing Yards
106
74
Rush Attempts
30
21
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
14
Passing 1st downs
16
10
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
69%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
9
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-11
-7
Sack EPA
-1.86
-0.81
Penalties
6
2
Penalty Yards
60
--
Penalty EPA
-0.17
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.4%
Model71.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-136
Home nfelo
1,410
Away nfelo
1,528
Home Field
+8.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-26.2
Home QB Adjustment
-12.3
Away QB Adjustment
+13.9
Market Regression
-32.0
Final Difference
-158.9
Model Spread
+6.5
Quarterbacks
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+13.9
D. McCoy
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-12.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
9
Yards / Game
16
12
Passing Yards / Game
32
26
Rushing Yards / Game
4
11
EPA
EPA / Play
8
15
EPA / Pass
8
17
EPA / Rush
10
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
2
Interceptions / Game
4
20
Fumbles / Game
18
13
Turnover EPA / Game
23
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
24
4th Down Efficiency
27
22
RZ Efficiency
4
3
Giants Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
22
Yards / Game
31
21
Passing Yards / Game
26
24
Rushing Yards / Game
19
9
EPA
EPA / Play
28
22
EPA / Pass
27
23
EPA / Rush
19
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
28
Interceptions / Game
11
10
Fumbles / Game
30
8
Turnover EPA / Game
12
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
25
4th Down Efficiency
8
32
RZ Efficiency
31
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Giants
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
2-7-1
O/U