CLEBrowns
0-1
18
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
80°F
12 mph
13
JAXJaguars
0-1
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
80°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
7
6
3
0
16
Jaguars
0
3
7
3
13
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
297
323
Total Plays
65
55
Yards / Play
4.6
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.06
-0.05
Passing Yards
172
196
Comp/Att
22/34(65%)
14/30(47%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.04
-0.20
Rushing Yards
125
127
Rush Attempts
29
21
Yards / Rush
4.3
6.0
EPA / Rush
+0.01
+0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
18
Passing 1st downs
7
9
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
14%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
2
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
9
Red Zone %
100%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-14
-24
Sack EPA
-3.29
-6.35
Penalties
13
6
Penalty Yards
100
52
Penalty EPA
-8.68
-7.83
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+55
Home nfelo
1,519
Away nfelo
1,511
Home Field
+46.8
Base HFA
+46.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+0.5
Home QB Adjustment
-3.3
Away QB Adjustment
-3.8
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-3.8
T. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
-3.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
27
Yards / Game
28
31
Passing Yards / Game
12
26
Rushing Yards / Game
29
24
EPA
EPA / Play
32
31
EPA / Pass
32
32
EPA / Rush
22
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
25
Interceptions / Game
32
30
Fumbles / Game
17
31
Turnover EPA / Game
1
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
26
4th Down Efficiency
18
17
RZ Efficiency
27
20
Jaguars Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
27
Yards / Game
25
18
Passing Yards / Game
26
10
Rushing Yards / Game
25
21
EPA
EPA / Play
18
9
EPA / Pass
20
21
EPA / Rush
16
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
2
Interceptions / Game
22
32
Fumbles / Game
17
8
Turnover EPA / Game
23
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
6
4th Down Efficiency
20
3
RZ Efficiency
13
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
8-2
O/U
Jaguars
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U