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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. browns @ jets week 2, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CLE logo
CLEBrowns
0-1
23
TBD
MetLife Stadium
72°F
3 mph
3
NYJJets
0-1
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
72°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
6
10
7
0
23
Jets
0
3
0
0
3

Spread

CLE logo
-6.5

Total

UNDER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Browns logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
375
262
Total Plays
59
59
Yards / Play
6.4
4.4
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.41
Passing Yards
305
169
Comp/Att
19/35(54%)
23/31(74%)
Yards / Pass
8.7
5.5
EPA / Pass
+0.06
-0.52
Rushing Yards
70
93
Rush Attempts
21
24
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.20
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
Browns logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
16
13
Passing 1st downs
10
6
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
31%
14%
3rd Down Conversions
4
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Browns logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.60
-4.26
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-20
-32
Sack EPA
-6.19
-6.01
Penalties
9
12
Penalty Yards
85
89
Penalty EPA
-8.56
-10.47

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CLE logo
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market71.4%
Model61.9%
Spread Pick
NYJ logo
Jets+6.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+10.0%
Cover Probability
57.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-21
Home nfelo
1,400
Away nfelo
1,464
Home Field
+78.6
Base HFA
+58.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-34.7
Home QB Adjustment
-36.5
Away QB Adjustment
-1.9
Market Regression
-68.2
Final Difference
-84.2
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

B. Mayfield headshot

B. Mayfield

Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
-1.9
Value
Ptile
10/28
-1.9
34
11/04
2.4
66
11/11
5.5
83
11/25
6.4
87
12/02
2.0
62
12/09
1.4
57
12/15
-2.5
31
12/23
8.0
92
12/30
2.6
67
09/08
-7.2
11
T. Siemian headshot

T. Siemian

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-36.5
Value
Ptile
09/11
-0.5
48
09/17
3.5
78
09/24
-5.1
19
10/01
-5.1
19
10/15
-2.6
35
10/22
-4.5
22
10/30
-8.3
7
12/03
-12.5
0
12/10
-1.0
45
12/14
-9.0
5

Team Matchup Ranks

Browns Offense vs Jets Defense
Browns logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
22
16
Yards / Game
22
7
Passing Yards / Game
14
21
Rushing Yards / Game
12
2

EPA

EPA / Play
22
9
EPA / Pass
21
19
EPA / Rush
12
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
4
Interceptions / Game
30
18
Fumbles / Game
2
20
Turnover EPA / Game
7
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
15
4th Down Efficiency
23
2
RZ Efficiency
14
13
Jets Offense vs Browns Defense
Jets logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
31
20
Yards / Game
32
21
Passing Yards / Game
19
10
Rushing Yards / Game
31
30

EPA

EPA / Play
32
20
EPA / Pass
31
15
EPA / Rush
31
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
17
Interceptions / Game
23
10
Fumbles / Game
18
25
Turnover EPA / Game
16
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
12
4th Down Efficiency
27
4
RZ Efficiency
21
25

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CLE logo

Browns

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/28
-15
L
L
O
11/04
-16
L
L
O
11/11
12
W
W
U
11/25
15
W
W
O
12/02
-16
L
L
U
12/09
6
W
W
U
12/15
1
W
W
U
12/23
8
W
L
P
12/30
-2
L
W
O
09/08
-30
L
L
O
NYJ logo

Jets

1-9
SU
2-7-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/28
-14
L
L
U
11/04
-7
L
L
U
11/11
-31
L
L
O
11/25
-14
L
L
U
12/02
-4
L
W
O
12/09
4
W
W
O
12/15
-7
L
P
O
12/23
-6
L
L
O
12/30
-35
L
L
U
09/08
-1
L
L
U