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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. browns @ jets week 10, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CLE logo
CLEBrowns
2-6
20
TBD
MetLife Stadium
62°F
12 mph
27
NYJJets
1-7
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
62°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
7
10
0
3
20
Jets
8
3
0
10
21

Spread

NYJ logo
+2

Total

OVER
37.5

Game Statistics

General
Browns logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
278
169
Total Plays
70
47
Yards / Play
4.0
3.6
EPA / Play
-0.14
-0.06
Passing Yards
120
42
Comp/Att
17/32(53%)
6/11(55%)
Yards / Pass
3.8
3.8
EPA / Pass
-0.23
-0.93
Rushing Yards
158
127
Rush Attempts
32
33
Yards / Rush
4.9
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
Browns logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
23
12
Passing 1st downs
8
1
Rushing 1st downs
10
8
Penalty 1st downs
5
3
3rd Down %
38%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
11
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Browns logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-5.38
Sacks
6
3
Sack Yards
-47
-12
Sack EPA
-9.87
-3.22
Penalties
10
7
Penalty Yards
78
61
Penalty EPA
-10.72
-10.06

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CLE logo
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-2.0
Model
+0.5

Win Probability

Market54.7%
Model48.5%
Spread Pick
NYJ logo
Jets+2.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+0.1%
Cover Probability
50.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+45
Home nfelo
1,411
Away nfelo
1,431
Home Field
+36.6
Base HFA
+42.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+12.3
Away Bye Adj
-33.2
Surface Adj
+14.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+28.4
Home QB Adjustment
-11.9
Away QB Adjustment
-40.3
Market Regression
-11.6
Final Difference
10.6
Model Spread
-0.5

Quarterbacks

D. Gabriel headshot

D. Gabriel

Proj. Value
-3.6
Team Elo Adj
-40.3
Value
Ptile
10/05
0.1
53
10/12
-7.9
5
10/19
-4.3
22
10/26
-3.3
27
J. Fields headshot

J. Fields

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-11.9
Value
Ptile
09/29
6.3
86
10/06
-1.9
35
10/13
0.8
53
09/07
7.7
93
09/14
-6.7
9
09/29
8.4
95
10/05
0.9
57
10/12
-13.1
0
10/19
-8.1
5
10/26
2.6
69

Team Matchup Ranks

Browns Offense vs Jets Defense
Browns logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
31
31
Yards / Game
30
23
Passing Yards / Game
21
15
Rushing Yards / Game
27
27

EPA

EPA / Play
32
30
EPA / Pass
32
31
EPA / Rush
24
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
2
Interceptions / Game
29
32
Fumbles / Game
11
29
Turnover EPA / Game
5
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
10
4th Down Efficiency
31
32
RZ Efficiency
26
25
Jets Offense vs Browns Defense
Jets logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
28
13
Yards / Game
29
4
Passing Yards / Game
32
3
Rushing Yards / Game
6
15

EPA

EPA / Play
27
4
EPA / Pass
29
5
EPA / Rush
25
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
7
Interceptions / Game
23
17
Fumbles / Game
30
19
Turnover EPA / Game
11
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
8
4th Down Efficiency
28
5
RZ Efficiency
32
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CLE logo

Browns

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/29
-17
L
L
U
01/04
-25
L
L
O
09/07
-1
L
W
U
09/14
-24
L
L
O
09/21
3
W
W
U
09/28
-24
L
L
U
10/05
-4
L
L
O
10/12
-14
L
L
U
10/19
25
W
W
O
10/26
-19
L
L
O
NYJ logo

Jets

2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/29
-26
L
L
O
01/05
12
W
W
O
09/07
-2
L
W
O
09/14
-20
L
L
U
09/21
-2
L
W
O
09/29
-6
L
L
O
10/05
-15
L
L
O
10/12
-2
L
W
U
10/19
-7
L
L
U
10/26
1
W
W
O