CLEBrowns
2-6
20
TBD
MetLife Stadium
62°F
12 mph
27
NYJJets
1-7
TBD
MetLife Stadium
62°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
7
10
0
3
20
Jets
8
3
0
10
21
Spread
+2
Total
OVER
37.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
278
169
Total Plays
70
47
Yards / Play
4.0
3.6
EPA / Play
-0.14
-0.06
Passing Yards
120
42
Comp/Att
17/32(53%)
6/11(55%)
Yards / Pass
3.8
3.8
EPA / Pass
-0.23
-0.93
Rushing Yards
158
127
Rush Attempts
32
33
Yards / Rush
4.9
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
12
Passing 1st downs
8
1
Rushing 1st downs
10
8
Penalty 1st downs
5
3
3rd Down %
38%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
11
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-5.38
Sacks
6
3
Sack Yards
-47
-12
Sack EPA
-9.87
-3.22
Penalties
10
7
Penalty Yards
78
61
Penalty EPA
-10.72
-10.06
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-2.0
Model
+0.5
Win Probability
Market54.7%
Model48.8%
Spread Pick
Jets+2.0
Expected Value
+0.1%
Cover Probability
50.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+42
Home nfelo
1,409
Away nfelo
1,432
Home Field
+36.6
Base HFA
+42.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+12.3
Away Bye Adj
-33.2
Surface Adj
+14.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+28.4
Home QB Adjustment
-11.9
Away QB Adjustment
-40.3
Market Regression
-13.7
Final Difference
8.6
Model Spread
-0.5
Quarterbacks
D. Gabriel
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-40.3
J. Fields
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-11.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
27
Yards / Game
31
20
Passing Yards / Game
25
14
Rushing Yards / Game
26
23
EPA
EPA / Play
32
28
EPA / Pass
32
28
EPA / Rush
18
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
2
Interceptions / Game
26
32
Fumbles / Game
6
30
Turnover EPA / Game
19
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
13
4th Down Efficiency
18
30
RZ Efficiency
24
13
Jets Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
18
Yards / Game
29
2
Passing Yards / Game
32
1
Rushing Yards / Game
4
14
EPA
EPA / Play
23
5
EPA / Pass
27
10
EPA / Rush
20
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
10
Interceptions / Game
6
8
Fumbles / Game
29
19
Turnover EPA / Game
12
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
8
4th Down Efficiency
20
15
RZ Efficiency
23
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Jets
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U