CLEBrowns
4-10
13
TBD
MetLife Stadium
70°F
12 mph
24
NYJJets
6-8
TBD
MetLife Stadium
70°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
3
7
0
3
13
Jets
0
10
0
14
24
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
283
422
Total Plays
64
76
Yards / Play
4.4
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.03
+0.10
Passing Yards
168
--
Comp/Att
18/40(45%)
20/37(54%)
Yards / Pass
4.2
--
EPA / Pass
-0.36
+0.29
Rushing Yards
115
208
Rush Attempts
21
39
Yards / Rush
5.5
5.3
EPA / Rush
+0.31
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
25
Passing 1st downs
11
13
Rushing 1st downs
7
11
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
42%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
5
12
3rd Down Attempts
12
18
Red Zone %
25%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.41
--
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-10
--
Sack EPA
-3.21
--
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
24
35
Penalty EPA
-2.62
-3.25
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+72
Home nfelo
1,427
Away nfelo
1,390
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-48.6
Home QB Adjustment
-16.1
Away QB Adjustment
+32.5
Market Regression
+8.1
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Campbell
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+32.5
E. Smith
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-16.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
19
Yards / Game
18
11
Passing Yards / Game
8
27
Rushing Yards / Game
28
2
EPA
EPA / Play
25
16
EPA / Pass
25
25
EPA / Rush
14
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
6
Interceptions / Game
24
22
Fumbles / Game
9
32
Turnover EPA / Game
14
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
13
4th Down Efficiency
17
10
RZ Efficiency
22
4
Jets Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
23
Yards / Game
25
9
Passing Yards / Game
32
9
Rushing Yards / Game
6
18
EPA
EPA / Play
29
17
EPA / Pass
30
12
EPA / Rush
18
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
3
Interceptions / Game
28
19
Fumbles / Game
5
24
Turnover EPA / Game
6
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
31
4th Down Efficiency
32
16
RZ Efficiency
26
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
8-2
O/U
Jets
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
7-3
O/U