CLEBrowns
0-8
24
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
038
DETLions
4-4
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
10
0
14
0
24
Lions
3
8
7
14
32
Spread
-10
Total
OVER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
413
345
Total Plays
77
49
Yards / Play
5.4
7.0
EPA / Play
-0.12
+0.07
Passing Yards
212
241
Comp/Att
22/40(55%)
17/26(65%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
9.3
EPA / Pass
-0.41
+0.09
Rushing Yards
201
104
Rush Attempts
33
19
Yards / Rush
6.1
5.5
EPA / Rush
+0.27
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
16
Passing 1st downs
9
9
Rushing 1st downs
14
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
33%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-13.81
-4.90
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-25
-8
Sack EPA
-6.55
-4.99
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
60
81
Penalty EPA
-7.53
-7.67
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+232
Home nfelo
1,489
Away nfelo
1,301
Home Field
+32.0
Base HFA
+56.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-43.7
Surface Adj
+19.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+12.1
Home QB Adjustment
+0.3
Away QB Adjustment
-11.8
Market Regression
-51.2
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
D. Kizer
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-11.8
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+0.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
21
Yards / Game
24
27
Passing Yards / Game
15
16
Rushing Yards / Game
18
19
EPA
EPA / Play
31
4
EPA / Pass
32
11
EPA / Rush
4
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
7
Interceptions / Game
32
3
Fumbles / Game
25
4
Turnover EPA / Game
1
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
15
4th Down Efficiency
12
21
RZ Efficiency
24
28
Lions Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
31
Yards / Game
13
13
Passing Yards / Game
4
31
Rushing Yards / Game
32
7
EPA
EPA / Play
20
27
EPA / Pass
12
27
EPA / Rush
32
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
6
Interceptions / Game
10
31
Fumbles / Game
28
18
Turnover EPA / Game
9
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
23
4th Down Efficiency
31
18
RZ Efficiency
14
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Lions
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U