CLEBrowns
7-7
22
TBD
Lambeau Field
35°F
11 mph
24
GBPackers
11-3
TBD
Lambeau Field
35°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
6
6
3
7
22
Packers
7
14
3
0
24
Spread
+7.5
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
408
311
Total Plays
67
58
Yards / Play
6.1
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.09
+0.12
Passing Yards
189
--
Comp/Att
21/37(57%)
24/34(71%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
--
EPA / Pass
-0.05
+0.17
Rushing Yards
219
109
Rush Attempts
25
24
Yards / Rush
8.8
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.48
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
19
Passing 1st downs
15
10
Rushing 1st downs
12
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
58%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
60%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
4
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-12.94
--
Sacks
5
--
Sack Yards
-33
--
Sack EPA
-7.12
--
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
38
29
Penalty EPA
-3.05
-5.54
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+207
Home nfelo
1,642
Away nfelo
1,515
Home Field
+43.0
Base HFA
+36.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+6.5
Net QB Adjustment
+37.3
Home QB Adjustment
+18.4
Away QB Adjustment
-18.9
Market Regression
-12.1
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
-18.9
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+18.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
10
Yards / Game
18
8
Passing Yards / Game
28
15
Rushing Yards / Game
4
10
EPA
EPA / Play
20
22
EPA / Pass
22
7
EPA / Rush
4
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
20
Interceptions / Game
14
7
Fumbles / Game
20
16
Turnover EPA / Game
21
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
24
4th Down Efficiency
30
7
RZ Efficiency
12
23
Packers Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
14
Yards / Game
12
3
Passing Yards / Game
8
8
Rushing Yards / Game
19
11
EPA
EPA / Play
3
21
EPA / Pass
3
11
EPA / Rush
7
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
6
Interceptions / Game
1
17
Fumbles / Game
6
30
Turnover EPA / Game
32
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
14
4th Down Efficiency
9
27
RZ Efficiency
18
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Packers
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U