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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. browns @ panthers week 1, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CLE logo
CLEBrowns
-
26
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
70°F
0
24
CARPanthers
-
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
17
3
6
26
Panthers
0
7
0
17
24

Spread

CLE logo
+1

Total

OVER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Browns logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
355
261
Total Plays
74
50
Yards / Play
4.8
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.11
+0.03
Passing Yards
138
207
Comp/Att
18/34(53%)
16/27(59%)
Yards / Pass
4.1
7.7
EPA / Pass
-0.22
-0.06
Rushing Yards
217
54
Rush Attempts
39
19
Yards / Rush
5.6
2.8
EPA / Rush
+0.22
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
Browns logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
23
15
Passing 1st downs
7
7
Rushing 1st downs
11
5
Penalty 1st downs
5
3
3rd Down %
44%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
18
11
Red Zone %
25%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Browns logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-2.55
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-9
-28
Sack EPA
-1.38
-7.46
Penalties
9
8
Penalty Yards
71
96
Penalty EPA
-6.92
-14.02

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CAR logo
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market52.2%
Model52.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+12
Home nfelo
1,395
Away nfelo
1,490
Home Field
+36.8
Base HFA
+36.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+69.8
Home QB Adjustment
-7.3
Away QB Adjustment
-77.0
Market Regression
+25.5
Final Difference
15.3
Model Spread
-1.0

Quarterbacks

J. Brissett headshot

J. Brissett

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-77.0
Value
Ptile
12/01
-3.4
28
12/08
1.1
60
12/16
-4.3
24
12/22
-2.9
32
12/29
-6.5
14
09/26
1.1
61
10/03
-1.5
42
10/10
-0.7
48
11/07
-7.8
9
11/11
-7.2
11
B. Mayfield headshot

B. Mayfield

Proj. Value
-0.3
Team Elo Adj
-7.3
Value
Ptile
10/10
6.1
88
10/17
-3.8
25
10/31
-3.2
29
11/07
-0.5
49
11/14
-7.8
9
11/21
-8.4
6
11/28
-3.4
28
12/12
1.5
64
12/25
-10.4
3
01/03
-13.7
1

Team Matchup Ranks

Browns Offense vs Panthers Defense
Browns logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
17
17
Yards / Game
15
22
Passing Yards / Game
14
30
Rushing Yards / Game
5
18

EPA

EPA / Play
15
15
EPA / Pass
20
23
EPA / Rush
4
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
24
Interceptions / Game
10
24
Fumbles / Game
11
20
Turnover EPA / Game
28
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
23
4th Down Efficiency
8
9
RZ Efficiency
20
18
Panthers Offense vs Browns Defense
Panthers logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
19
19
Yards / Game
29
12
Passing Yards / Game
30
16
Rushing Yards / Game
10
25

EPA

EPA / Play
20
23
EPA / Pass
24
11
EPA / Rush
9
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
12
Interceptions / Game
15
22
Fumbles / Game
7
14
Turnover EPA / Game
19
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
17
4th Down Efficiency
7
9
RZ Efficiency
12
15

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CLE logo

Browns

4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/31
-5
L
L
U
11/07
25
W
W
O
11/14
-38
L
L
O
11/21
3
W
L
U
11/28
-6
L
L
U
12/12
2
W
L
O
12/20
-2
L
W
U
12/25
-2
L
W
U
01/03
-12
L
L
U
01/09
5
W
L
U
CAR logo

Panthers

2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/31
6
W
W
U
11/07
-18
L
L
U
11/14
24
W
W
O
11/21
-6
L
L
O
11/28
-23
L
L
O
12/12
-8
L
L
O
12/19
-17
L
L
O
12/26
-26
L
L
U
01/02
-8
L
L
U
01/09
-24
L
L
O