CLEBrowns
5-4
7
TBD
Gillette Stadium
48°F
6 mph
45
NEPatriots
5-4
TBD
Gillette Stadium
48°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
7
0
0
0
7
Patriots
7
17
7
14
45
Spread
-1
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
217
452
Total Plays
58
62
Yards / Play
3.7
7.3
EPA / Play
-0.16
+0.52
Passing Yards
118
268
Comp/Att
19/33(58%)
22/26(85%)
Yards / Pass
3.6
10.3
EPA / Pass
-0.29
+0.92
Rushing Yards
99
184
Rush Attempts
20
34
Yards / Rush
5.0
5.4
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
30
Passing 1st downs
12
17
Rushing 1st downs
4
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
9%
78%
3rd Down Conversions
1
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
9
Red Zone %
50%
83%
Red Zone Conversions
1
5
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.03
--
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-36
-15
Sack EPA
-7.81
-3.68
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
42
46
Penalty EPA
-4.01
-7.62
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model52.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+28
Home nfelo
1,545
Away nfelo
1,574
Home Field
+54.5
Base HFA
+40.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+3.1
Home QB Adjustment
-5.9
Away QB Adjustment
-9.0
Market Regression
-27.3
Final Difference
15.3
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
-9.0
M. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-5.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
3
Yards / Game
18
7
Passing Yards / Game
28
2
Rushing Yards / Game
4
24
EPA
EPA / Play
20
5
EPA / Pass
22
5
EPA / Rush
4
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
30
Interceptions / Game
14
2
Fumbles / Game
20
16
Turnover EPA / Game
21
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
9
4th Down Efficiency
30
16
RZ Efficiency
12
8
Patriots Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
14
Yards / Game
15
3
Passing Yards / Game
12
8
Rushing Yards / Game
8
11
EPA
EPA / Play
5
21
EPA / Pass
10
11
EPA / Rush
9
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
6
Interceptions / Game
17
17
Fumbles / Game
17
30
Turnover EPA / Game
6
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
14
4th Down Efficiency
1
27
RZ Efficiency
7
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Patriots
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U