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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. browns @ patriots week 10, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CLE logo
CLEBrowns
5-4
7
TBD
Gillette Stadium
48°F
6 mph
45
NEPatriots
5-4
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
48°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
7
0
0
0
7
Patriots
7
17
7
14
45

Spread

NE logo
-1

Total

OVER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Browns logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
217
452
Total Plays
58
62
Yards / Play
3.7
7.3
EPA / Play
-0.16
+0.52
Passing Yards
118
268
Comp/Att
19/33(58%)
22/26(85%)
Yards / Pass
3.6
10.3
EPA / Pass
-0.29
+0.92
Rushing Yards
99
184
Rush Attempts
20
34
Yards / Rush
5.0
5.4
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.17
Downs & Conversions
Browns logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
17
30
Passing 1st downs
12
17
Rushing 1st downs
4
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
9%
78%
3rd Down Conversions
1
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
9
Red Zone %
50%
83%
Red Zone Conversions
1
5
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Browns logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.03
--
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-36
-15
Sack EPA
-7.81
-3.68
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
42
46
Penalty EPA
-4.01
-7.62

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market52.2%
Model52.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+30
Home nfelo
1,545
Away nfelo
1,574
Home Field
+55.5
Base HFA
+41.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+3.1
Home QB Adjustment
-5.9
Away QB Adjustment
-9.0
Market Regression
-27.3
Final Difference
15.3
Model Spread
-1.0

Quarterbacks

B. Mayfield headshot

B. Mayfield

Proj. Value
-0.1
Team Elo Adj
-9.0
Value
Ptile
01/10
7.3
90
01/17
-2.3
28
09/12
-0.1
53
09/19
-0.1
53
09/26
-2.0
38
10/03
-8.1
8
10/10
6.1
88
10/17
-3.8
25
10/31
-3.2
29
11/07
-0.5
49
M. Jones headshot

M. Jones

Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
-5.9
Value
Ptile
09/12
3.8
79
09/19
-4.4
22
09/26
-3.6
26
10/03
-0.3
50
10/10
-1.1
45
10/17
-1.6
41
10/24
4.3
81
10/31
-2.8
32
11/07
-5.1
19

Team Matchup Ranks

Browns Offense vs Patriots Defense
Browns logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
20
3
Yards / Game
18
7
Passing Yards / Game
28
2
Rushing Yards / Game
4
24

EPA

EPA / Play
20
5
EPA / Pass
22
5
EPA / Rush
4
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
30
Interceptions / Game
14
2
Fumbles / Game
20
16
Turnover EPA / Game
21
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
9
4th Down Efficiency
30
16
RZ Efficiency
12
8
Patriots Offense vs Browns Defense
Patriots logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
7
14
Yards / Game
15
3
Passing Yards / Game
12
8
Rushing Yards / Game
8
11

EPA

EPA / Play
5
21
EPA / Pass
10
11
EPA / Rush
9
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
6
Interceptions / Game
17
17
Fumbles / Game
17
30
Turnover EPA / Game
6
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
14
4th Down Efficiency
1
27
RZ Efficiency
7
28

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CLE logo

Browns

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/17
-5
L
W
U
09/12
-4
L
W
O
09/19
10
W
L
O
09/26
20
W
W
U
10/03
7
W
W
U
10/10
-5
L
L
O
10/17
-23
L
L
O
10/21
3
W
W
U
10/31
-5
L
L
U
11/07
25
W
W
O
NE logo

Patriots

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/03
14
W
W
O
09/12
-1
L
L
U
09/19
19
W
W
U
09/26
-15
L
L
U
10/03
-2
L
W
U
10/10
3
W
L
O
10/17
-6
L
L
O
10/24
41
W
W
O
10/31
3
W
W
O
11/07
18
W
W
U