CLEBrowns
2-4
6
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
024
LARRams
2-3
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
3
3
0
6
Rams
4
0
7
7
18
Spread
-6
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
364
308
Total Plays
65
51
Yards / Play
5.6
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.38
-0.14
Passing Yards
282
150
Comp/Att
30/37(81%)
15/23(65%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.42
-0.45
Rushing Yards
82
158
Rush Attempts
24
26
Yards / Rush
3.4
6.1
EPA / Rush
-0.23
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
16
Passing 1st downs
12
5
Rushing 1st downs
3
9
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
25%
11%
3rd Down Conversions
3
1
3rd Down Attempts
12
9
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
4
1
Turnover EPA
-21.37
-3.65
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-15
-13
Sack EPA
-13.49
-2.76
Penalties
11
9
Penalty Yards
98
75
Penalty EPA
-10.66
-8.48
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+140
Home nfelo
1,506
Away nfelo
1,436
Home Field
+91.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-21.4
Home QB Adjustment
-7.4
Away QB Adjustment
+14.0
Market Regression
+10.5
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
J. McCown
Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+14.0
N. Foles
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-7.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
12
Yards / Game
26
23
Passing Yards / Game
12
18
Rushing Yards / Game
22
21
EPA
EPA / Play
29
6
EPA / Pass
28
10
EPA / Rush
18
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
32
Interceptions / Game
11
17
Fumbles / Game
31
5
Turnover EPA / Game
6
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
6
4th Down Efficiency
26
3
RZ Efficiency
32
2
Rams Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
29
Yards / Game
32
28
Passing Yards / Game
32
2
Rushing Yards / Game
7
30
EPA
EPA / Play
32
29
EPA / Pass
32
30
EPA / Rush
24
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
2
Interceptions / Game
10
20
Fumbles / Game
15
9
Turnover EPA / Game
21
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
21
4th Down Efficiency
31
27
RZ Efficiency
21
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
2-8
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Rams
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U