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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. browns @ rams week 7, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CLE logo
CLEBrowns
2-4
6
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0
24
LARRams
2-3
LAR logo
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
3
3
0
6
Rams
4
0
7
7
18

Spread

LAR logo
-6

Total

UNDER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Browns logo
Rams logo
Total Yards
364
308
Total Plays
65
51
Yards / Play
5.6
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.38
-0.14
Passing Yards
282
150
Comp/Att
30/37(81%)
15/23(65%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.42
-0.45
Rushing Yards
82
158
Rush Attempts
24
26
Yards / Rush
3.4
6.1
EPA / Rush
-0.23
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
Browns logo
Rams logo
1st Downs
19
16
Passing 1st downs
12
5
Rushing 1st downs
3
9
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
25%
11%
3rd Down Conversions
3
1
3rd Down Attempts
12
9
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Browns logo
Rams logo
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
4
1
Turnover EPA
-21.37
-3.65
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-15
-13
Sack EPA
-13.49
-2.76
Penalties
11
9
Penalty Yards
98
75
Penalty EPA
-10.66
-8.48

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAR logo
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+137
Home nfelo
1,506
Away nfelo
1,438
Home Field
+91.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-21.4
Home QB Adjustment
-7.4
Away QB Adjustment
+14.0
Market Regression
+10.5
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0

Quarterbacks

J. McCown headshot

J. McCown

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+14.0
Value
Ptile
11/30
-5.0
19
12/07
-7.8
8
12/14
-4.4
24
12/21
-13.2
1
12/28
-6.9
11
09/13
-3.2
27
09/27
-2.9
29
10/04
5.5
84
10/11
9.9
96
10/18
-5.6
13
N. Foles headshot

N. Foles

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-7.4
Value
Ptile
09/28
-7.8
8
10/05
2.2
67
10/12
-0.2
48
10/26
4.3
79
11/02
-5.0
19
09/13
5.3
83
09/20
-3.6
24
09/27
-4.3
19
10/04
2.6
69
10/11
-14.0
0

Team Matchup Ranks

Browns Offense vs Rams Defense
Browns logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
30
12
Yards / Game
26
23
Passing Yards / Game
12
18
Rushing Yards / Game
22
21

EPA

EPA / Play
29
6
EPA / Pass
28
10
EPA / Rush
18
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
32
Interceptions / Game
11
17
Fumbles / Game
31
5
Turnover EPA / Game
6
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
6
4th Down Efficiency
26
3
RZ Efficiency
32
2
Rams Offense vs Browns Defense
Rams logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
29
29
Yards / Game
32
28
Passing Yards / Game
32
2
Rushing Yards / Game
7
30

EPA

EPA / Play
32
29
EPA / Pass
32
30
EPA / Rush
24
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
2
Interceptions / Game
10
20
Fumbles / Game
15
9
Turnover EPA / Game
21
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
21
4th Down Efficiency
31
27
RZ Efficiency
21
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CLE logo

Browns

2-8
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/07
-1
L
W
U
12/14
-30
L
L
U
12/21
-4
L
W
U
12/28
-10
L
W
U
09/13
-21
L
L
O
09/20
14
W
W
O
09/27
-7
L
L
O
10/04
-3
L
W
O
10/11
3
W
W
O
10/18
-3
L
W
O
LAR logo

Rams

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/30
52
W
W
O
12/07
24
W
W
U
12/11
-6
L
L
U
12/21
-10
L
L
O
12/28
-14
L
L
U
09/13
3
W
W
O
09/20
-14
L
L
U
09/27
-6
L
L
U
10/04
2
W
W
O
10/11
-14
L
L
U