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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. browns @ ravens week 2, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CLE logo
CLEBrowns
0-1
6
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
75°F
6 mph
14
BALRavens
0-1
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
75°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
3
3
0
0
6
Ravens
0
0
7
7
14

Spread

BAL logo
-6.5

Total

UNDER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Browns logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
259
296
Total Plays
62
71
Yards / Play
4.2
4.2
EPA / Play
-0.23
-0.11
Passing Yards
194
197
Comp/Att
22/37(59%)
22/33(67%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
6.0
EPA / Pass
-0.23
+0.15
Rushing Yards
65
99
Rush Attempts
20
36
Yards / Rush
3.3
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
Browns logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
13
19
Passing 1st downs
11
13
Rushing 1st downs
1
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
27%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
15
16
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Browns logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.32
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-39
-14
Sack EPA
-7.50
-4.05
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
33
41
Penalty EPA
-4.99
-2.34

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market71.0%
Model72.4%
Spread Pick
BAL logo
Ravens-6.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+5.5%
Cover Probability
55.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+214
Home nfelo
1,564
Away nfelo
1,429
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+22.3
Home QB Adjustment
+4.7
Away QB Adjustment
-17.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
167.5
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

B. Weeden headshot

B. Weeden

Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
-17.6
Value
Ptile
10/21
5.3
83
10/28
-7.9
6
11/04
-5.6
15
11/18
0.4
52
11/25
-3.6
27
12/02
1.4
59
12/09
-2.9
30
12/16
-3.6
27
12/23
-3.9
25
09/08
-11.2
2
J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+4.7
Value
Ptile
12/02
-5.0
19
12/09
0.7
54
12/16
-2.5
33
12/23
7.5
91
12/30
-4.9
19
01/06
2.3
64
01/12
7.1
90
01/20
3.2
71
02/03
5.3
83
09/05
-1.8
40

Team Matchup Ranks

Browns Offense vs Ravens Defense
Browns logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
27
11
Yards / Game
18
12
Passing Yards / Game
8
4
Rushing Yards / Game
28
10

EPA

EPA / Play
25
10
EPA / Pass
25
13
EPA / Rush
14
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
4
Interceptions / Game
24
14
Fumbles / Game
9
29
Turnover EPA / Game
14
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
3
4th Down Efficiency
17
23
RZ Efficiency
22
8
Ravens Offense vs Browns Defense
Ravens logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
25
23
Yards / Game
28
9
Passing Yards / Game
12
9
Rushing Yards / Game
30
18

EPA

EPA / Play
23
17
EPA / Pass
21
12
EPA / Rush
31
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
3
Interceptions / Game
31
19
Fumbles / Game
9
24
Turnover EPA / Game
18
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
31
4th Down Efficiency
23
16
RZ Efficiency
31
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CLE logo

Browns

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/28
1
W
W
U
11/04
-10
L
L
U
11/18
-3
L
W
U
11/25
6
W
W
O
12/02
3
W
W
U
12/09
23
W
W
U
12/16
-17
L
L
O
12/23
-22
L
L
O
12/30
-14
L
L
U
09/08
-13
L
L
U
BAL logo

Ravens

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/02
-3
L
L
O
12/09
-3
L
L
O
12/16
-17
L
L
O
12/23
19
W
W
U
12/30
-6
L
L
U
01/06
15
W
W
U
01/12
3
W
W
O
01/20
15
W
W
U
02/03
3
W
W
O
09/05
-22
L
L
O