CLEBrowns
3-13
10
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
31°F
16 mph
35
BALRavens
11-5
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
31°F
16 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
3
0
7
10
Ravens
1
7
7
14
29
Spread
-20
Total
OVER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
230
437
Total Plays
55
67
Yards / Play
4.2
6.5
EPA / Play
-0.35
+0.12
Passing Yards
174
--
Comp/Att
18/34(53%)
16/32(50%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
--
EPA / Pass
-0.52
+0.16
Rushing Yards
56
220
Rush Attempts
19
35
Yards / Rush
2.9
6.3
EPA / Rush
-0.36
+0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
20
Passing 1st downs
9
12
Rushing 1st downs
1
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
33%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
33%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-11.89
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-9
--
Sack EPA
-3.05
--
Penalties
3
10
Penalty Yards
--
83
Penalty EPA
--
-10.02
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-18.0
Current
-20.0
Model
-20.0
Win Probability
Market93.8%
Model93.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+408
Home nfelo
1,717
Away nfelo
1,391
Home Field
+21.4
Base HFA
+38.9
Divisional Adj
-17.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+60.7
Home QB Adjustment
+43.8
Away QB Adjustment
-16.8
Market Regression
+44.3
Final Difference
468.6
Model Spread
-20.0
Quarterbacks
B. Zappe
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-16.8
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+5.8
Team Elo Adj
+43.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
8
Yards / Game
28
8
Passing Yards / Game
12
32
Rushing Yards / Game
29
1
EPA
EPA / Play
32
19
EPA / Pass
32
11
EPA / Rush
22
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
30
Interceptions / Game
32
21
Fumbles / Game
17
29
Turnover EPA / Game
1
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
20
4th Down Efficiency
18
2
RZ Efficiency
27
14
Ravens Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
27
Yards / Game
1
18
Passing Yards / Game
13
10
Rushing Yards / Game
1
21
EPA
EPA / Play
1
9
EPA / Pass
1
21
EPA / Rush
1
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
2
Interceptions / Game
1
32
Fumbles / Game
15
8
Turnover EPA / Game
27
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
6
4th Down Efficiency
15
3
RZ Efficiency
1
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U
Ravens
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U