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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. browns @ ravens week 18, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CLE logo
CLEBrowns
3-13
10
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
31°F
16 mph
35
BALRavens
11-5
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
31°F
16 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
3
0
7
10
Ravens
1
7
7
14
29

Spread

BAL logo
-20

Total

OVER
42

Game Statistics

General
Browns logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
230
437
Total Plays
55
67
Yards / Play
4.2
6.5
EPA / Play
-0.35
+0.12
Passing Yards
174
--
Comp/Att
18/34(53%)
16/32(50%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
--
EPA / Pass
-0.52
+0.16
Rushing Yards
56
220
Rush Attempts
19
35
Yards / Rush
2.9
6.3
EPA / Rush
-0.36
+0.15
Downs & Conversions
Browns logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
13
20
Passing 1st downs
9
12
Rushing 1st downs
1
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
33%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
33%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Browns logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-11.89
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-9
--
Sack EPA
-3.05
--
Penalties
3
10
Penalty Yards
--
83
Penalty EPA
--
-10.02

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-18.0
Current
-20.0
Model
-19.5

Win Probability

Market93.8%
Model93.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+406
Home nfelo
1,715
Away nfelo
1,391
Home Field
+21.6
Base HFA
+39.4
Divisional Adj
-17.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+60.7
Home QB Adjustment
+43.9
Away QB Adjustment
-16.9
Market Regression
+34.6
Final Difference
458.9
Model Spread
-19.5

Quarterbacks

B. Zappe headshot

B. Zappe

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-16.9
Value
Ptile
10/09
-1.8
39
10/16
4.3
83
12/03
-8.4
7
12/07
3.2
71
12/17
-3.3
27
12/24
4.6
79
12/31
-3.9
25
01/07
-14.9
0
L. Jackson headshot

L. Jackson

Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+43.9
Value
Ptile
10/21
10.2
97
10/27
4.7
78
11/03
6.9
89
11/07
10.8
98
11/17
-1.3
39
11/25
3.7
73
12/01
5.9
83
12/15
13.4
99
12/21
3.3
72
12/25
9.8
96

Team Matchup Ranks

Browns Offense vs Ravens Defense
Browns logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
32
8
Yards / Game
28
8
Passing Yards / Game
12
32
Rushing Yards / Game
29
1

EPA

EPA / Play
32
19
EPA / Pass
32
11
EPA / Rush
22
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
30
Interceptions / Game
32
21
Fumbles / Game
17
29
Turnover EPA / Game
1
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
20
4th Down Efficiency
18
2
RZ Efficiency
27
14
Ravens Offense vs Browns Defense
Ravens logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
3
27
Yards / Game
1
18
Passing Yards / Game
13
10
Rushing Yards / Game
1
21

EPA

EPA / Play
1
9
EPA / Pass
1
21
EPA / Rush
1
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
2
Interceptions / Game
1
32
Fumbles / Game
15
8
Turnover EPA / Game
27
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
6
4th Down Efficiency
15
3
RZ Efficiency
1
25

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CLE logo

Browns

2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/20
-7
L
L
U
10/27
5
W
W
O
11/03
-17
L
L
U
11/17
-21
L
L
O
11/21
5
W
W
O
12/02
-9
L
L
O
12/08
-13
L
L
U
12/15
-14
L
L
U
12/22
-18
L
L
U
12/29
-17
L
L
U
BAL logo

Ravens

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/21
10
W
W
O
10/27
-5
L
L
O
11/03
31
W
W
O
11/07
1
W
L
O
11/17
-2
L
L
U
11/25
7
W
W
O
12/01
-5
L
L
U
12/15
21
W
W
O
12/21
17
W
W
O
12/25
29
W
W
U