CLEBrowns
4-2
20
TBD
Lumen Field
47°F
3 mph
24
SEASeahawks
4-2
TBD
Lumen Field
47°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
7
7
6
0
20
Seahawks
17
0
0
7
24
Spread
+4.5
Total
OVER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
385
362
Total Plays
75
55
Yards / Play
5.1
6.6
EPA / Play
-0.03
+0.01
Passing Yards
230
248
Comp/Att
16/32(50%)
23/37(62%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
6.7
EPA / Pass
-0.16
+0.07
Rushing Yards
155
114
Rush Attempts
40
17
Yards / Rush
3.9
6.7
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
17
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
9
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
--
3rd Down %
40%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
50%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-13.22
-6.82
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-27
-6
Sack EPA
-7.79
-1.53
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
25
43
Penalty EPA
-2.72
-9.32
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+111
Home nfelo
1,529
Away nfelo
1,548
Home Field
+66.0
Base HFA
+43.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.1
Time Adj
+7.7
Net QB Adjustment
+64.2
Home QB Adjustment
-5.7
Away QB Adjustment
-69.9
Market Regression
+59.9
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
P. Walker
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-69.9
E. Smith
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-5.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
24
Yards / Game
16
30
Passing Yards / Game
5
22
Rushing Yards / Game
13
31
EPA
EPA / Play
28
29
EPA / Pass
28
27
EPA / Rush
23
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
23
Interceptions / Game
32
19
Fumbles / Game
26
13
Turnover EPA / Game
1
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
31
4th Down Efficiency
16
15
RZ Efficiency
15
25
Seahawks Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
21
Yards / Game
22
1
Passing Yards / Game
7
2
Rushing Yards / Game
27
10
EPA
EPA / Play
9
1
EPA / Pass
12
1
EPA / Rush
12
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
11
Interceptions / Game
15
5
Fumbles / Game
1
18
Turnover EPA / Game
31
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
1
4th Down Efficiency
30
1
RZ Efficiency
26
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Seahawks
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U