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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. browns @ seahawks week 8, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CLE logo
CLEBrowns
4-2
20
TBD
Lumen Field
47°F
3 mph
24
SEASeahawks
4-2
SEA logo
TBD
Lumen Field
47°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
7
7
6
0
20
Seahawks
17
0
0
7
24

Spread

CLE logo
+4.5

Total

OVER
39.5

Game Statistics

General
Browns logo
Seahawks logo
Total Yards
385
362
Total Plays
75
55
Yards / Play
5.1
6.6
EPA / Play
-0.03
+0.01
Passing Yards
230
248
Comp/Att
16/32(50%)
23/37(62%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
6.7
EPA / Pass
-0.16
+0.07
Rushing Yards
155
114
Rush Attempts
40
17
Yards / Rush
3.9
6.7
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
Browns logo
Seahawks logo
1st Downs
23
17
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
9
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
--
3rd Down %
40%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
50%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Browns logo
Seahawks logo
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-13.22
-6.82
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-27
-6
Sack EPA
-7.79
-1.53
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
25
43
Penalty EPA
-2.72
-9.32

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+109
Home nfelo
1,528
Away nfelo
1,549
Home Field
+66.0
Base HFA
+43.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.1
Time Adj
+7.7
Net QB Adjustment
+64.3
Home QB Adjustment
-5.5
Away QB Adjustment
-69.8
Market Regression
+60.5
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5

Quarterbacks

P. Walker headshot

P. Walker

Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-69.8
Value
Ptile
11/22
-4.0
19
11/14
-1.9
39
10/16
-6.0
13
10/23
2.3
71
10/30
-1.6
42
11/06
-10.5
1
11/10
-6.0
13
10/15
-7.0
11
E. Smith headshot

E. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.4
Team Elo Adj
-5.5
Value
Ptile
12/24
-3.1
27
01/01
-1.5
43
01/08
-1.7
41
01/14
2.7
73
09/10
-2.8
30
09/17
8.1
94
09/24
-1.2
42
10/02
-4.0
24
10/15
-2.0
35
10/22
-0.9
44

Team Matchup Ranks

Browns Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Browns logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
12
24
Yards / Game
16
30
Passing Yards / Game
5
22
Rushing Yards / Game
13
31

EPA

EPA / Play
28
29
EPA / Pass
28
27
EPA / Rush
23
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
23
Interceptions / Game
32
19
Fumbles / Game
26
13
Turnover EPA / Game
1
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
31
4th Down Efficiency
16
15
RZ Efficiency
15
25
Seahawks Offense vs Browns Defense
Seahawks logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
17
21
Yards / Game
22
1
Passing Yards / Game
7
2
Rushing Yards / Game
27
10

EPA

EPA / Play
9
1
EPA / Pass
12
1
EPA / Rush
12
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
11
Interceptions / Game
15
5
Fumbles / Game
1
18
Turnover EPA / Game
31
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
1
4th Down Efficiency
30
1
RZ Efficiency
26
32

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CLE logo

Browns

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/17
10
W
W
U
12/24
-7
L
L
U
01/01
14
W
W
U
01/08
-14
L
L
O
09/10
21
W
W
U
09/18
-4
L
L
O
09/24
24
W
W
U
10/01
-25
L
L
U
10/15
2
W
W
P
10/22
1
W
L
O
SEA logo

Seahawks

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/24
-14
L
L
U
01/01
17
W
W
U
01/08
3
W
L
U
01/14
-18
L
L
O
09/10
-17
L
L
U
09/17
6
W
W
O
09/24
10
W
W
O
10/02
21
W
W
U
10/15
-4
L
L
U
10/22
10
W
W
U