CLEBrowns
1-0
22
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
70°F
026
PITSteelers
0-1
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
3
11
8
0
22
Steelers
1
9
3
1
14
Spread
+2
Total
OVER
39
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
412
255
Total Plays
83
54
Yards / Play
5.0
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.27
-0.37
Passing Yards
210
200
Comp/Att
22/40(55%)
15/30(50%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
6.7
EPA / Pass
-0.45
-0.45
Rushing Yards
202
55
Rush Attempts
37
22
Yards / Rush
5.5
2.5
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.38
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
9
Passing 1st downs
12
6
Rushing 1st downs
7
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
31%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
14
Red Zone %
67%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
3
1
Turnover EPA
-20.44
-10.73
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-25
-22
Sack EPA
-13.87
-3.33
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
81
31
Penalty EPA
-8.39
-3.47
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.7%
Model54.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-25
Home nfelo
1,532
Away nfelo
1,557
Home Field
+23.6
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
-19.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-23.1
Home QB Adjustment
-12.3
Away QB Adjustment
+10.8
Market Regression
-32.7
Final Difference
-32.8
Model Spread
+2.0
Quarterbacks
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+10.8
K. Pickett
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-12.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
8
Yards / Game
16
21
Passing Yards / Game
5
23
Rushing Yards / Game
13
21
EPA
EPA / Play
28
10
EPA / Pass
28
10
EPA / Rush
23
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
25
Interceptions / Game
32
13
Fumbles / Game
26
5
Turnover EPA / Game
1
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
21
4th Down Efficiency
16
11
RZ Efficiency
15
6
Steelers Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
21
Yards / Game
25
1
Passing Yards / Game
26
2
Rushing Yards / Game
11
10
EPA
EPA / Play
25
1
EPA / Pass
24
1
EPA / Rush
20
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
11
Interceptions / Game
5
5
Fumbles / Game
8
18
Turnover EPA / Game
27
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
1
4th Down Efficiency
25
1
RZ Efficiency
25
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Steelers
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U