CLEBrowns
1-4
10
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
61°F
13 mph
28
PITSteelers
3-1
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
61°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
3
0
0
7
10
Steelers
0
7
7
14
28
Spread
-14
Total
OVER
37.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
328
378
Total Plays
60
62
Yards / Play
5.5
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.03
+0.25
Passing Yards
258
--
Comp/Att
23/33(70%)
16/27(59%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
--
EPA / Pass
-0.06
+0.40
Rushing Yards
70
121
Rush Attempts
22
35
Yards / Rush
3.2
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
22
Passing 1st downs
14
13
Rushing 1st downs
2
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
46%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-6.79
-2.69
Sacks
5
--
Sack Yards
-23
--
Sack EPA
-6.57
--
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
46
25
Penalty EPA
-7.37
-2.27
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-14.0
Model
-14.0
Win Probability
Market87.3%
Model87.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+336
Home nfelo
1,601
Away nfelo
1,364
Home Field
+52.2
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+46.9
Home QB Adjustment
+66.6
Away QB Adjustment
+19.7
Market Regression
+34.9
Final Difference
334.9
Model Spread
-14.0
Quarterbacks
D. McCoy
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+19.7
No recent game data available
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+66.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
2
Yards / Game
30
2
Passing Yards / Game
28
17
Rushing Yards / Game
21
1
EPA
EPA / Play
23
2
EPA / Pass
27
4
EPA / Rush
22
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
8
Interceptions / Game
19
10
Fumbles / Game
13
5
Turnover EPA / Game
11
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
5
4th Down Efficiency
1
25
RZ Efficiency
27
4
Steelers Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
12
Yards / Game
14
22
Passing Yards / Game
10
11
Rushing Yards / Game
11
26
EPA
EPA / Play
13
23
EPA / Pass
9
25
EPA / Rush
10
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
16
Interceptions / Game
6
8
Fumbles / Game
18
17
Turnover EPA / Game
20
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
28
4th Down Efficiency
27
31
RZ Efficiency
15
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Steelers
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U