CLEBrowns
4-1
7
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
61°F
9 mph
38
PITSteelers
4-0
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
61°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
7
0
0
7
Steelers
4
14
7
7
32
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
50
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
220
277
Total Plays
54
62
Yards / Play
4.1
4.5
EPA / Play
-0.60
+0.05
Passing Yards
145
148
Comp/Att
15/28(54%)
15/23(65%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
6.4
EPA / Pass
-0.63
+0.02
Rushing Yards
75
129
Rush Attempts
22
37
Yards / Rush
3.4
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.46
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
18
Passing 1st downs
8
5
Rushing 1st downs
2
12
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
8%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
1
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-9.96
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-20
-20
Sack EPA
-5.72
-2.99
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
55
45
Penalty EPA
-5.64
-4.67
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+68
Home nfelo
1,584
Away nfelo
1,546
Home Field
+3.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+26.3
Home QB Adjustment
+24.5
Away QB Adjustment
-1.8
Market Regression
-39.9
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
-1.8
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+24.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
5
Yards / Game
16
3
Passing Yards / Game
32
8
Rushing Yards / Game
4
13
EPA
EPA / Play
8
2
EPA / Pass
8
2
EPA / Rush
10
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
32
Interceptions / Game
4
4
Fumbles / Game
18
11
Turnover EPA / Game
23
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
6
4th Down Efficiency
27
1
RZ Efficiency
4
5
Steelers Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
22
Yards / Game
22
21
Passing Yards / Game
31
24
Rushing Yards / Game
32
9
EPA
EPA / Play
19
22
EPA / Pass
15
23
EPA / Rush
32
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
28
Interceptions / Game
25
10
Fumbles / Game
9
8
Turnover EPA / Game
17
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
25
4th Down Efficiency
11
32
RZ Efficiency
8
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Steelers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U