CLEBrowns
1-4
9
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
64°F
8 mph
23
PITSteelers
3-1
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
64°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
3
3
3
9
Steelers
3
6
7
7
23
Spread
-6.5
Total
UNDER
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
248
335
Total Plays
75
58
Yards / Play
3.3
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.10
+0.15
Passing Yards
183
--
Comp/Att
29/52(56%)
21/30(70%)
Yards / Pass
3.5
--
EPA / Pass
-0.27
+0.32
Rushing Yards
65
100
Rush Attempts
17
28
Yards / Rush
3.8
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.00
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
19
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
35%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
17
13
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
6
--
Sack Yards
-38
--
Sack EPA
-9.57
--
Penalties
6
10
Penalty Yards
44
59
Penalty EPA
-7.14
-10.85
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+178
Home nfelo
1,501
Away nfelo
1,399
Home Field
+33.7
Base HFA
+40.3
Divisional Adj
-18.2
Home Bye Adj
+11.6
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+43.1
Home QB Adjustment
+5.4
Away QB Adjustment
-37.7
Market Regression
+15.7
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
D. Gabriel
Proj. Value
-3.6
Team Elo Adj
-37.7
Value
Ptile
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+5.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
16
Yards / Game
31
28
Passing Yards / Game
25
32
Rushing Yards / Game
26
13
EPA
EPA / Play
32
16
EPA / Pass
32
17
EPA / Rush
18
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
24
Interceptions / Game
26
8
Fumbles / Game
6
1
Turnover EPA / Game
19
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
24
4th Down Efficiency
18
27
RZ Efficiency
24
6
Steelers Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
18
Yards / Game
28
2
Passing Yards / Game
29
1
Rushing Yards / Game
29
14
EPA
EPA / Play
10
5
EPA / Pass
14
10
EPA / Rush
19
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
10
Interceptions / Game
16
8
Fumbles / Game
6
19
Turnover EPA / Game
30
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
8
4th Down Efficiency
20
15
RZ Efficiency
9
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
3-7
O/U
Steelers
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U