CLEBrowns
2-4
18
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
47°F
11 mph
33
PITSteelers
3-2
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
47°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
6
0
6
6
18
Steelers
0
14
7
10
31
Spread
-8.5
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
237
421
Total Plays
60
68
Yards / Play
4.0
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.21
+0.01
Passing Yards
163
253
Comp/Att
22/37(59%)
24/36(67%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
7.0
EPA / Pass
-0.16
+0.08
Rushing Yards
74
168
Rush Attempts
21
31
Yards / Rush
3.5
5.4
EPA / Rush
-0.13
+0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
25
Passing 1st downs
9
14
Rushing 1st downs
5
10
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
23%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-2.04
-8.67
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-17
-4
Sack EPA
-3.81
-1.94
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
52
60
Penalty EPA
-4.44
-8.32
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-8.5
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market76.8%
Model76.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+204
Home nfelo
1,575
Away nfelo
1,430
Home Field
+48.5
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
+16.6
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+10.9
Home QB Adjustment
+15.1
Away QB Adjustment
+4.1
Market Regression
+22.6
Final Difference
207.9
Model Spread
-8.5
Quarterbacks
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
+4.1
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+15.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
16
Yards / Game
11
6
Passing Yards / Game
30
27
Rushing Yards / Game
13
5
EPA
EPA / Play
24
20
EPA / Pass
23
18
EPA / Rush
14
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
29
Interceptions / Game
26
27
Fumbles / Game
9
19
Turnover EPA / Game
14
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
9
4th Down Efficiency
29
12
RZ Efficiency
5
16
Steelers Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
21
Yards / Game
5
30
Passing Yards / Game
2
31
Rushing Yards / Game
31
28
EPA
EPA / Play
8
16
EPA / Pass
4
9
EPA / Rush
15
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
18
Interceptions / Game
26
3
Fumbles / Game
18
1
Turnover EPA / Game
7
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
6
4th Down Efficiency
6
27
RZ Efficiency
2
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
2-7-1
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Steelers
5-4-1
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U