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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. browns @ steelers week 13, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CLE logo
CLEBrowns
5-6
13
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
46°F
6 mph
20
PITSteelers
6-5
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
46°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
3
7
0
3
13
Steelers
0
10
7
3
20

Spread

PIT logo
+1

Total

UNDER
40

Game Statistics

General
Browns logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
279
323
Total Plays
63
54
Yards / Play
4.4
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.10
-0.01
Passing Yards
173
199
Comp/Att
18/34(53%)
14/21(67%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
9.5
EPA / Pass
-0.14
+0.21
Rushing Yards
106
124
Rush Attempts
24
32
Yards / Rush
4.4
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
Browns logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
19
18
Passing 1st downs
9
10
Rushing 1st downs
9
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
33%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
33%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Browns logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.40
-5.05
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-23
-13
Sack EPA
-10.72
-2.39
Penalties
5
10
Penalty Yards
34
65
Penalty EPA
-5.15
-5.74

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CLE logo
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market52.3%
Model53.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-64
Home nfelo
1,570
Away nfelo
1,530
Home Field
+26.9
Base HFA
+48.9
Divisional Adj
-22.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-131.5
Home QB Adjustment
-125.7
Away QB Adjustment
+5.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-25.9
Model Spread
+1.5

Quarterbacks

B. Mayfield headshot

B. Mayfield

Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+5.8
Value
Ptile
09/16
-3.4
29
09/22
-6.3
14
09/29
1.9
66
10/07
-14.4
1
10/13
-0.3
50
10/27
-2.1
38
11/03
3.4
74
11/10
1.8
66
11/14
2.8
71
11/24
4.1
79
D. Hodges headshot

D. Hodges

Proj. Value
-6.0
Team Elo Adj
-125.7
Value
Ptile
10/13
-1.8
39

Team Matchup Ranks

Browns Offense vs Steelers Defense
Browns logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
22
5
Yards / Game
22
5
Passing Yards / Game
14
13
Rushing Yards / Game
12
14

EPA

EPA / Play
22
2
EPA / Pass
21
4
EPA / Rush
12
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
24
Interceptions / Game
30
2
Fumbles / Game
2
1
Turnover EPA / Game
7
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
6
4th Down Efficiency
23
18
RZ Efficiency
14
3
Steelers Offense vs Browns Defense
Steelers logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
27
20
Yards / Game
30
21
Passing Yards / Game
30
10
Rushing Yards / Game
29
30

EPA

EPA / Play
31
20
EPA / Pass
30
15
EPA / Rush
32
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
17
Interceptions / Game
28
10
Fumbles / Game
22
25
Turnover EPA / Game
5
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
12
4th Down Efficiency
32
4
RZ Efficiency
32
25

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CLE logo

Browns

5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/16
20
W
W
U
09/22
-7
L
L
U
09/29
15
W
W
O
10/07
-28
L
L
U
10/13
-4
L
L
O
10/27
-14
L
L
U
11/03
-5
L
L
O
11/10
3
W
P
U
11/14
14
W
W
U
11/24
17
W
W
O
PIT logo

Steelers

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/15
-2
L
L
O
09/22
-4
L
W
U
09/30
24
W
W
U
10/06
-3
L
W
O
10/13
7
W
W
U
10/28
13
W
L
U
11/03
2
W
W
O
11/10
5
W
W
U
11/14
-14
L
L
U
11/24
6
W
W
U