CLEBrowns
5-6
13
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
46°F
6 mph
20
PITSteelers
6-5
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
46°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
3
7
0
3
13
Steelers
0
10
7
3
20
Spread
+1
Total
UNDER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
279
323
Total Plays
63
54
Yards / Play
4.4
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.10
-0.01
Passing Yards
173
199
Comp/Att
18/34(53%)
14/21(67%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
9.5
EPA / Pass
-0.14
+0.21
Rushing Yards
106
124
Rush Attempts
24
32
Yards / Rush
4.4
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
18
Passing 1st downs
9
10
Rushing 1st downs
9
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
33%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
33%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.40
-5.05
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-23
-13
Sack EPA
-10.72
-2.39
Penalties
5
10
Penalty Yards
34
65
Penalty EPA
-5.15
-5.74
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model53.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-61
Home nfelo
1,572
Away nfelo
1,529
Home Field
+26.6
Base HFA
+48.5
Divisional Adj
-21.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-131.5
Home QB Adjustment
-125.7
Away QB Adjustment
+5.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-25.3
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
+5.8
D. Hodges
Proj. Value
-6.0
Team Elo Adj
-125.7
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
5
Yards / Game
18
5
Passing Yards / Game
14
13
Rushing Yards / Game
12
14
EPA
EPA / Play
22
2
EPA / Pass
20
4
EPA / Rush
17
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
24
Interceptions / Game
30
2
Fumbles / Game
2
1
Turnover EPA / Game
7
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
6
4th Down Efficiency
23
18
RZ Efficiency
13
3
Steelers Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
20
Yards / Game
30
21
Passing Yards / Game
30
10
Rushing Yards / Game
29
29
EPA
EPA / Play
31
20
EPA / Pass
30
15
EPA / Rush
32
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
17
Interceptions / Game
28
10
Fumbles / Game
22
25
Turnover EPA / Game
5
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
12
4th Down Efficiency
32
4
RZ Efficiency
32
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Steelers
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U