CLEBrowns
7-9
14
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
36°F
8 mph
28
PITSteelers
8-8
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
36°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
7
0
7
14
Steelers
0
10
10
8
28
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
307
335
Total Plays
58
68
Yards / Play
5.3
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.06
+0.16
Passing Yards
173
191
Comp/Att
19/29(66%)
13/30(43%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
6.4
EPA / Pass
-0.13
+0.34
Rushing Yards
134
144
Rush Attempts
22
37
Yards / Rush
6.1
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.14
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
23
Passing 1st downs
11
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
42%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
5
9
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-6.58
-5.22
Sacks
7
1
Sack Yards
-57
-6
Sack EPA
-8.74
-1.33
Penalties
9
4
Penalty Yards
65
20
Penalty EPA
-7.94
-3.75
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model52.8%
Spread Pick
Browns+2.5
Expected Value
+1.5%
Cover Probability
53.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-5
Home nfelo
1,519
Away nfelo
1,509
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+42.0
Divisional Adj
-18.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-38.8
Home QB Adjustment
-28.1
Away QB Adjustment
+10.8
Market Regression
+3.2
Final Difference
19.8
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+10.8
K. Pickett
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-28.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
10
Yards / Game
15
11
Passing Yards / Game
14
8
Rushing Yards / Game
5
9
EPA
EPA / Play
15
24
EPA / Pass
20
29
EPA / Rush
4
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
18
Interceptions / Game
10
1
Fumbles / Game
11
31
Turnover EPA / Game
28
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
16
4th Down Efficiency
8
26
RZ Efficiency
20
16
Steelers Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
19
Yards / Game
23
12
Passing Yards / Game
20
16
Rushing Yards / Game
16
25
EPA
EPA / Play
19
23
EPA / Pass
16
11
EPA / Rush
11
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
12
Interceptions / Game
17
22
Fumbles / Game
1
14
Turnover EPA / Game
26
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
17
4th Down Efficiency
3
9
RZ Efficiency
24
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
2-7-1
O/U
Steelers
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U