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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. browns @ texans week 6, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CLE logo
CLEBrowns
0-5
17
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
33
HOUTexans
2-3
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
3
0
0
8
11
Texans
10
8
7
0
25

Spread

HOU logo
-7.5

Total

OVER
46

Game Statistics

General
Browns logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
247
342
Total Plays
63
63
Yards / Play
3.9
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.32
-0.09
Passing Yards
113
217
Comp/Att
20/37(54%)
17/29(59%)
Yards / Pass
3.1
7.5
EPA / Pass
-0.68
-0.04
Rushing Yards
134
123
Rush Attempts
22
33
Yards / Rush
6.1
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.19
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
Browns logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
16
18
Passing 1st downs
7
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
21%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Browns logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-13.63
-8.66
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-27
-8
Sack EPA
-6.24
-1.61
Penalties
11
4
Penalty Yards
72
44
Penalty EPA
-7.13
-0.75

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-10.0

Win Probability

Market74.4%
Model79.6%
Spread Pick
HOU logo
Texans-7.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+20.0%
Cover Probability
62.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+277
Home nfelo
1,440
Away nfelo
1,341
Home Field
+67.9
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
-10.4
Net QB Adjustment
+109.4
Home QB Adjustment
+71.8
Away QB Adjustment
-37.6
Market Regression
-8.6
Final Difference
236.1
Model Spread
-10.0

Quarterbacks

K. Hogan headshot

K. Hogan

Proj. Value
-5.2
Team Elo Adj
-37.6
No recent game data available
D. Watson headshot

D. Watson

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+71.8
Value
Ptile
09/14
1.6
64
09/24
1.7
66
10/01
9.6
97
10/08
6.5
89

Team Matchup Ranks

Browns Offense vs Texans Defense
Browns logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
32
32
Yards / Game
24
20
Passing Yards / Game
15
22
Rushing Yards / Game
18
12

EPA

EPA / Play
31
30
EPA / Pass
32
25
EPA / Rush
4
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
2
Interceptions / Game
32
18
Fumbles / Game
25
31
Turnover EPA / Game
1
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
5
4th Down Efficiency
12
27
RZ Efficiency
24
27
Texans Offense vs Browns Defense
Texans logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
17
31
Yards / Game
20
13
Passing Yards / Game
12
31
Rushing Yards / Game
13
7

EPA

EPA / Play
21
27
EPA / Pass
25
27
EPA / Rush
12
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
6
Interceptions / Game
27
31
Fumbles / Game
28
18
Turnover EPA / Game
4
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
23
4th Down Efficiency
13
18
RZ Efficiency
20
32

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CLE logo

Browns

1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/27
-14
L
L
U
12/11
-13
L
L
U
12/18
-20
L
L
O
12/24
3
W
W
U
01/01
-3
L
W
O
09/10
-3
L
W
U
09/17
-14
L
L
U
09/24
-3
L
L
O
10/01
-24
L
L
U
10/08
-3
L
L
U
HOU logo

Texans

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/18
1
W
L
O
12/24
2
W
L
U
01/01
-7
L
L
U
01/07
13
W
W
O
01/14
-18
L
L
O
09/10
-22
L
L
U
09/14
4
W
W
U
09/24
-3
L
W
O
10/01
43
W
W
O
10/08
-8
L
L
O