CLEBrowns
0-5
17
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
033
HOUTexans
2-3
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
3
0
0
8
11
Texans
10
8
7
0
25
Spread
-7.5
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
247
342
Total Plays
63
63
Yards / Play
3.9
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.32
-0.09
Passing Yards
113
217
Comp/Att
20/37(54%)
17/29(59%)
Yards / Pass
3.1
7.5
EPA / Pass
-0.68
-0.04
Rushing Yards
134
123
Rush Attempts
22
33
Yards / Rush
6.1
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.19
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
18
Passing 1st downs
7
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
21%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-13.63
-8.66
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-27
-8
Sack EPA
-6.24
-1.61
Penalties
11
4
Penalty Yards
72
44
Penalty EPA
-7.13
-0.75
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model79.4%
Spread Pick
Texans-7.5
Expected Value
+20.0%
Cover Probability
62.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+275
Home nfelo
1,438
Away nfelo
1,339
Home Field
+67.0
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+109.4
Home QB Adjustment
+71.8
Away QB Adjustment
-37.6
Market Regression
-0.6
Final Difference
234.7
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
K. Hogan
Proj. Value
-5.2
Team Elo Adj
-37.6
No recent game data available
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+71.8
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
32
Yards / Game
24
20
Passing Yards / Game
15
22
Rushing Yards / Game
18
12
EPA
EPA / Play
31
30
EPA / Pass
32
25
EPA / Rush
4
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
2
Interceptions / Game
32
18
Fumbles / Game
25
31
Turnover EPA / Game
1
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
5
4th Down Efficiency
12
27
RZ Efficiency
24
27
Texans Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
31
Yards / Game
20
13
Passing Yards / Game
12
31
Rushing Yards / Game
13
7
EPA
EPA / Play
21
27
EPA / Pass
25
27
EPA / Rush
12
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
6
Interceptions / Game
27
31
Fumbles / Game
28
18
Turnover EPA / Game
4
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
23
4th Down Efficiency
13
18
RZ Efficiency
20
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Texans
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U