CLEBrowns
3-4
12
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
030
HOUTexans
5-3
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
3
0
3
6
12
Texans
14
10
3
3
30
Spread
-10.5
Total
UNDER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
172
380
Total Plays
48
63
Yards / Play
3.6
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.15
+0.16
Passing Yards
128
--
Comp/Att
14/23(61%)
14/23(61%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
--
EPA / Pass
-0.15
-0.23
Rushing Yards
44
261
Rush Attempts
21
40
Yards / Rush
2.1
6.5
EPA / Rush
-0.41
+0.34
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
10
21
Passing 1st downs
7
7
Rushing 1st downs
2
14
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
33%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
4
9
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.51
-4.67
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-18
--
Sack EPA
-6.12
--
Penalties
4
2
Penalty Yards
--
15
Penalty EPA
--
-1.73
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-10.5
Model
-10.5
Win Probability
Market80.6%
Model80.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+196
Home nfelo
1,583
Away nfelo
1,438
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+0.2
Home QB Adjustment
+2.8
Away QB Adjustment
+2.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
244.8
Model Spread
-10.5
Quarterbacks
D. McCoy
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+2.6
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+2.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
4
Yards / Game
29
2
Passing Yards / Game
20
11
Rushing Yards / Game
28
2
EPA
EPA / Play
26
2
EPA / Pass
23
1
EPA / Rush
24
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
24
Interceptions / Game
9
12
Fumbles / Game
1
22
Turnover EPA / Game
27
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
13
4th Down Efficiency
7
10
RZ Efficiency
29
11
Texans Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
5
Yards / Game
13
10
Passing Yards / Game
25
6
Rushing Yards / Game
2
30
EPA
EPA / Play
14
18
EPA / Pass
10
12
EPA / Rush
11
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
14
Interceptions / Game
4
30
Fumbles / Game
20
4
Turnover EPA / Game
20
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
24
4th Down Efficiency
30
16
RZ Efficiency
22
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
3-7
SU
2-7-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Texans
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U