CLEBrowns
4-7
27
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
014
HOUTexans
1-9
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
1
1
7
9
Texans
3
0
3
6
12
Spread
-7.5
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
304
283
Total Plays
61
62
Yards / Play
5.0
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.19
-0.49
Passing Yards
130
--
Comp/Att
12/22(55%)
20/40(50%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
--
EPA / Pass
-0.49
-0.48
Rushing Yards
174
82
Rush Attempts
38
22
Yards / Rush
4.6
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.38
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
16
Passing 1st downs
6
10
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
31%
8%
3rd Down Conversions
4
1
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
0%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-6.55
-18.23
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-1
--
Sack EPA
-1.85
--
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
56
31
Penalty EPA
-5.82
-3.71
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.9%
Model74.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-212
Home nfelo
1,330
Away nfelo
1,537
Home Field
+47.0
Base HFA
+40.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.0
Time Adj
-7.2
Net QB Adjustment
-51.5
Home QB Adjustment
-4.9
Away QB Adjustment
+46.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-189.9
Model Spread
+7.5
Quarterbacks
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+46.6
K. Allen
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-4.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
27
Yards / Game
15
30
Passing Yards / Game
14
17
Rushing Yards / Game
5
32
EPA
EPA / Play
15
12
EPA / Pass
20
13
EPA / Rush
4
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
18
Interceptions / Game
10
7
Fumbles / Game
11
10
Turnover EPA / Game
28
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
14
4th Down Efficiency
8
26
RZ Efficiency
20
19
Texans Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
19
Yards / Game
31
12
Passing Yards / Game
22
16
Rushing Yards / Game
31
25
EPA
EPA / Play
31
23
EPA / Pass
31
11
EPA / Rush
31
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
12
Interceptions / Game
31
22
Fumbles / Game
20
14
Turnover EPA / Game
3
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
17
4th Down Efficiency
16
9
RZ Efficiency
28
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Texans
1-9
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U