CLEBrowns
11-6
14
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
045
HOUTexans
10-7
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
7
7
0
0
14
Texans
10
14
2
7
33
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
324
356
Total Plays
70
44
Yards / Play
4.6
8.1
EPA / Play
-0.34
+0.26
Passing Yards
268
--
Comp/Att
34/46(74%)
17/22(77%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
--
EPA / Pass
-0.39
+0.60
Rushing Yards
56
76
Rush Attempts
20
22
Yards / Rush
2.8
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
14
Passing 1st downs
14
10
Rushing 1st downs
4
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
47%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
15
8
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-16.67
--
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-39
--
Sack EPA
-7.29
--
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
32
--
Penalty EPA
-3.24
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model50.0%
Spread Pick
Texans+2.5
Expected Value
+2.6%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+38
Home nfelo
1,466
Away nfelo
1,509
Home Field
+70.5
Base HFA
+46.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.1
Time Adj
+8.3
Net QB Adjustment
+6.8
Home QB Adjustment
+28.8
Away QB Adjustment
+21.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
0.1
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+21.9
C. Stroud
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
+28.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
11
Yards / Game
16
15
Passing Yards / Game
5
6
Rushing Yards / Game
13
8
EPA
EPA / Play
28
13
EPA / Pass
28
16
EPA / Rush
23
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
15
Interceptions / Game
32
15
Fumbles / Game
26
25
Turnover EPA / Game
1
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
6
4th Down Efficiency
16
18
RZ Efficiency
15
15
Texans Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
21
Yards / Game
15
1
Passing Yards / Game
21
2
Rushing Yards / Game
28
10
EPA
EPA / Play
14
1
EPA / Pass
11
1
EPA / Rush
27
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
11
Interceptions / Game
1
5
Fumbles / Game
13
18
Turnover EPA / Game
32
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
1
4th Down Efficiency
31
1
RZ Efficiency
16
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Texans
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U