CLEBrowns
8-3
41
TBD
Nissan Stadium
52°F
1 mph
35
TENTitans
8-3
TBD
Nissan Stadium
52°F
1 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
10
28
3
0
41
Titans
0
7
14
14
35
Spread
+4
Total
OVER
54
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
458
433
Total Plays
70
68
Yards / Play
6.5
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.27
+0.12
Passing Yards
--
369
Comp/Att
26/34(76%)
29/45(64%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.2
EPA / Pass
+0.78
+0.27
Rushing Yards
118
64
Rush Attempts
36
20
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.27
-0.47
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
25
Passing 1st downs
18
18
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
63%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
10
2
3rd Down Attempts
16
10
Red Zone %
80%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
4
4
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-5.00
-11.93
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-20
Sack EPA
--
-6.04
Penalties
13
5
Penalty Yards
92
52
Penalty EPA
-12.90
-8.14
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+64
Home nfelo
1,557
Away nfelo
1,520
Home Field
+5.1
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+21.4
Home QB Adjustment
+11.5
Away QB Adjustment
-9.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
-9.9
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+11.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
24
Yards / Game
16
28
Passing Yards / Game
32
4
Rushing Yards / Game
4
24
EPA
EPA / Play
8
28
EPA / Pass
8
27
EPA / Rush
10
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
26
Interceptions / Game
4
7
Fumbles / Game
18
21
Turnover EPA / Game
23
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
32
4th Down Efficiency
27
19
RZ Efficiency
4
30
Titans Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
22
Yards / Game
4
21
Passing Yards / Game
15
24
Rushing Yards / Game
2
9
EPA
EPA / Play
3
22
EPA / Pass
4
23
EPA / Rush
2
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
28
Interceptions / Game
3
10
Fumbles / Game
2
8
Turnover EPA / Game
31
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
25
4th Down Efficiency
6
32
RZ Efficiency
2
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
8-2
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Titans
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
8-1-1
O/U