
TBBuccaneers
2-3
34
TBD
Levi's Stadium
68°F
5 mph
17
SF49ers
1-5

TBD
Levi's Stadium
68°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
17
10
7
34
49ers
14
0
0
3
17
Spread

+1
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General


Total Yards
513
273
Total Plays
73
66
Yards / Play
7.0
4.1
EPA / Play
+0.18
-0.13
Passing Yards
264
113
Comp/Att
21/30(70%)
16/34(47%)
Yards / Pass
8.8
3.3
EPA / Pass
+0.51
-0.42
Rushing Yards
249
160
Rush Attempts
41
28
Yards / Rush
6.1
5.7
EPA / Rush
+0.00
+0.21
Downs & Conversions


1st Downs
27
20
Passing 1st downs
17
8
Rushing 1st downs
8
11
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
43%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
60%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays


Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
+1.10
-8.25
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-5
-30
Sack EPA
-2.67
-7.52
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
78
31
Penalty EPA
-6.85
-6.29
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner

SF49ersFavored
Opening
+2.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-0.5
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model51.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-15
Home nfelo
1,383
Away nfelo
1,430
Home Field
+22.9
Base HFA
+57.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-44.4
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.2
Net QB Adjustment
+8.2
Home QB Adjustment
+3.3
Away QB Adjustment
-4.8
Market Regression
+41.8
Final Difference
9.0
Model Spread
-0.5
Quarterbacks

J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-4.8

C. Kaepernick
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+3.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs 49ers Defense


Total
Points / Game
18
32
Yards / Game
18
32
Passing Yards / Game
13
27
Rushing Yards / Game
25
32
EPA
EPA / Play
18
29
EPA / Pass
9
29
EPA / Rush
28
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
3
Interceptions / Game
27
22
Fumbles / Game
25
5
Turnover EPA / Game
12
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
29
4th Down Efficiency
22
22
RZ Efficiency
21
28
49ers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense


Total
Points / Game
26
15
Yards / Game
31
22
Passing Yards / Game
29
20
Rushing Yards / Game
4
22
EPA
EPA / Play
29
12
EPA / Pass
30
10
EPA / Rush
10
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
16
Interceptions / Game
11
4
Fumbles / Game
29
12
Turnover EPA / Game
9
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
1
4th Down Efficiency
13
31
RZ Efficiency
4
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

Buccaneers
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U

49ers
2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U