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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. buccaneers @ 49ers week 7, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TB logo
TBBuccaneers
2-3
34
TBD
Levi's Stadium
68°F
5 mph
17
SF49ers
1-5
SF logo
TBD
Levi's Stadium
68°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
17
10
7
34
49ers
14
0
0
3
17

Spread

TB logo
+1

Total

OVER
45

Game Statistics

General
Buccaneers logo
49ers logo
Total Yards
513
273
Total Plays
73
66
Yards / Play
7.0
4.1
EPA / Play
+0.18
-0.13
Passing Yards
264
113
Comp/Att
21/30(70%)
16/34(47%)
Yards / Pass
8.8
3.3
EPA / Pass
+0.51
-0.42
Rushing Yards
249
160
Rush Attempts
41
28
Yards / Rush
6.1
5.7
EPA / Rush
+0.00
+0.21
Downs & Conversions
Buccaneers logo
49ers logo
1st Downs
27
20
Passing 1st downs
17
8
Rushing 1st downs
8
11
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
43%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
60%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Buccaneers logo
49ers logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
+1.10
-8.25
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-5
-30
Sack EPA
-2.67
-7.52
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
78
31
Penalty EPA
-6.85
-6.29

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
+2.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-0.5

Win Probability

Market52.2%
Model51.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-15
Home nfelo
1,382
Away nfelo
1,429
Home Field
+23.2
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-45.0
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+8.2
Home QB Adjustment
+3.3
Away QB Adjustment
-4.8
Market Regression
+41.8
Final Difference
9.0
Model Spread
-0.5

Quarterbacks

J. Winston headshot

J. Winston

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
-4.8
Value
Ptile
12/06
1.8
63
12/13
-2.3
34
12/17
3.8
78
12/27
-0.2
49
01/03
0.4
52
09/11
6.6
88
09/18
-10.7
2
09/25
5.9
86
10/02
-8.3
4
10/10
-0.7
43
C. Kaepernick headshot

C. Kaepernick

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+3.3
Value
Ptile
12/28
4.7
81
09/14
-0.2
49
09/20
5.0
82
09/27
-10.6
1
10/04
-7.4
6
10/11
3.7
77
10/18
2.3
66
10/22
-9.7
2
11/01
-5.8
12
10/16
-0.1
47

Team Matchup Ranks

Buccaneers Offense vs 49ers Defense
Buccaneers logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
18
32
Yards / Game
18
32
Passing Yards / Game
13
27
Rushing Yards / Game
25
32

EPA

EPA / Play
18
29
EPA / Pass
9
29
EPA / Rush
28
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
3
Interceptions / Game
27
22
Fumbles / Game
25
5
Turnover EPA / Game
12
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
29
4th Down Efficiency
22
22
RZ Efficiency
21
28
49ers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
49ers logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
26
15
Yards / Game
31
22
Passing Yards / Game
29
20
Rushing Yards / Game
4
22

EPA

EPA / Play
29
12
EPA / Pass
30
10
EPA / Rush
10
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
16
Interceptions / Game
11
4
Fumbles / Game
29
12
Turnover EPA / Game
9
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
1
4th Down Efficiency
13
31
RZ Efficiency
4
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TB logo

Buccaneers

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/06
4
W
W
U
12/13
-7
L
L
U
12/17
-8
L
L
O
12/27
-5
L
L
O
01/03
-28
L
L
O
09/11
7
W
W
O
09/18
-33
L
L
U
09/25
-5
L
L
O
10/02
-20
L
L
U
10/10
3
W
W
U
SF logo

49ers

2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/13
-14
L
L
U
12/20
-10
L
L
U
12/27
-15
L
L
O
01/03
3
W
W
U
09/12
28
W
W
U
09/18
-19
L
L
O
09/25
-19
L
L
O
10/02
-7
L
L
U
10/06
-12
L
L
O
10/16
-29
L
L
O