TBBuccaneers
2-8
13
TBD
Soldier Field
54°F
12 mph
21
CHIBears
4-6
TBD
Soldier Field
54°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
10
0
3
13
Bears
0
0
21
0
21
Spread
-4.5
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
367
204
Total Plays
75
56
Yards / Play
4.9
3.6
EPA / Play
-0.30
-0.29
Passing Yards
301
112
Comp/Att
25/48(52%)
17/27(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
4.1
EPA / Pass
-0.26
-0.50
Rushing Yards
66
92
Rush Attempts
22
26
Yards / Rush
3.0
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.31
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
12
Passing 1st downs
14
6
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
41%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
17
16
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-18.37
-4.14
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-40
-18
Sack EPA
-11.06
-7.30
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
87
45
Penalty EPA
-2.07
-4.46
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+108
Home nfelo
1,477
Away nfelo
1,417
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-3.1
Home QB Adjustment
+11.0
Away QB Adjustment
+14.1
Market Regression
-14.9
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
J. McCown
Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+14.1
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+11.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
31
Yards / Game
30
30
Passing Yards / Game
14
32
Rushing Yards / Game
29
16
EPA
EPA / Play
29
29
EPA / Pass
27
31
EPA / Rush
25
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
13
Interceptions / Game
31
16
Fumbles / Game
22
21
Turnover EPA / Game
6
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
22
4th Down Efficiency
29
30
RZ Efficiency
18
12
Bears Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
25
Yards / Game
20
24
Passing Yards / Game
18
24
Rushing Yards / Game
27
18
EPA
EPA / Play
22
24
EPA / Pass
26
28
EPA / Rush
6
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
3
Interceptions / Game
30
16
Fumbles / Game
22
10
Turnover EPA / Game
8
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
27
4th Down Efficiency
18
24
RZ Efficiency
2
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bears
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U