TBBuccaneers
0-1
20
TBD
New Era Field
74°F
4 mph
33
BUFBills
0-1
TBD
New Era Field
74°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
14
0
6
20
Bills
11
3
0
13
27
Spread
-4
Total
OVER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
353
438
Total Plays
72
68
Yards / Play
4.9
6.4
EPA / Play
-0.15
+0.03
Passing Yards
296
220
Comp/Att
26/51(51%)
21/31(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
7.1
EPA / Pass
-0.10
+0.01
Rushing Yards
57
218
Rush Attempts
19
35
Yards / Rush
3.0
6.2
EPA / Rush
-0.35
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
25
Passing 1st downs
13
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
25%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-16.02
-13.31
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
--
-10
Sack EPA
-1.03
-2.64
Penalties
13
7
Penalty Yards
112
55
Penalty EPA
-13.66
-4.35
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+125
Home nfelo
1,461
Away nfelo
1,428
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+7.9
Home QB Adjustment
+5.2
Away QB Adjustment
-2.7
Market Regression
-10.7
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
B. Leftwich
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-2.7
T. Edwards
Proj. Value
-3.0
Team Elo Adj
+5.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
14
Yards / Game
28
19
Passing Yards / Game
25
7
Rushing Yards / Game
22
31
EPA
EPA / Play
31
13
EPA / Pass
28
2
EPA / Rush
24
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
4
Interceptions / Game
31
2
Fumbles / Game
2
30
Turnover EPA / Game
4
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
24
4th Down Efficiency
23
23
RZ Efficiency
14
20
Bills Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
27
Yards / Game
30
26
Passing Yards / Game
27
11
Rushing Yards / Game
15
32
EPA
EPA / Play
28
19
EPA / Pass
27
22
EPA / Rush
17
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
20
Interceptions / Game
24
9
Fumbles / Game
8
23
Turnover EPA / Game
16
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
23
4th Down Efficiency
19
26
RZ Efficiency
32
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
1-0-9
O/U
Bills
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
1-0-9
O/U