TBBuccaneers
2-3
27
TBD
New Era Field
74°F
9 mph
30
BUFBills
3-2
TBD
New Era Field
74°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
6
0
7
14
27
Bills
3
7
7
13
30
Spread
3
P
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
447
434
Total Plays
70
67
Yards / Play
6.4
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.09
+0.12
Passing Yards
378
261
Comp/Att
32/44(73%)
20/33(61%)
Yards / Pass
8.6
7.9
EPA / Pass
+0.37
+0.34
Rushing Yards
69
173
Rush Attempts
25
33
Yards / Rush
2.8
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.25
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
23
Passing 1st downs
22
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
55%
63%
3rd Down Conversions
6
10
3rd Down Attempts
11
16
Red Zone %
67%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-12.75
-4.83
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-6
-7
Sack EPA
-5.09
-1.16
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
55
35
Penalty EPA
-7.97
-5.63
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+102
Home nfelo
1,494
Away nfelo
1,473
Home Field
+93.3
Base HFA
+57.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+16.4
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-12.1
Home QB Adjustment
-12.0
Away QB Adjustment
+0.1
Market Regression
+12.6
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+0.1
T. Taylor
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-12.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
16
Yards / Game
7
21
Passing Yards / Game
1
14
Rushing Yards / Game
27
29
EPA
EPA / Play
13
19
EPA / Pass
11
15
EPA / Rush
25
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
9
Interceptions / Game
20
7
Fumbles / Game
32
26
Turnover EPA / Game
8
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
11
4th Down Efficiency
13
24
RZ Efficiency
23
16
Bills Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
22
Yards / Game
29
32
Passing Yards / Game
29
3
Rushing Yards / Game
5
23
EPA
EPA / Play
22
28
EPA / Pass
22
29
EPA / Rush
13
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
13
Interceptions / Game
12
15
Fumbles / Game
9
9
Turnover EPA / Game
28
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
32
4th Down Efficiency
30
1
RZ Efficiency
22
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Bills
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U