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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. buccaneers @ bills week 8, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TB logo
TBBuccaneers
3-3
18
TBD
New Era Field
66°F
10 mph
24
BUFBills
4-3
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
66°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
10
0
8
18
Bills
3
14
7
0
24

Spread

TB logo
+10

Total

UNDER
43

Game Statistics

General
Buccaneers logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
304
427
Total Plays
62
68
Yards / Play
4.9
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.09
Passing Yards
224
312
Comp/Att
25/42(60%)
31/40(78%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
7.8
EPA / Pass
-0.03
+0.05
Rushing Yards
78
115
Rush Attempts
17
26
Yards / Rush
4.6
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.21
+0.19
Downs & Conversions
Buccaneers logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
17
25
Passing 1st downs
10
16
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
27%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Buccaneers logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-5.55
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-13
-12
Sack EPA
-4.27
-3.19
Penalties
11
9
Penalty Yards
74
86
Penalty EPA
-4.93
-13.08

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.5

Win Probability

Market79.5%
Model80.3%
Spread Pick
BUF logo
Bills-10.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.8%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+278
Home nfelo
1,634
Away nfelo
1,446
Home Field
+58.3
Base HFA
+43.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+31.8
Home QB Adjustment
+13.2
Away QB Adjustment
-18.6
Market Regression
-1.9
Final Difference
244.2
Model Spread
-10.5

Quarterbacks

B. Mayfield headshot

B. Mayfield

Proj. Value
-0.3
Team Elo Adj
-18.6
Value
Ptile
12/19
-9.3
3
12/25
7.7
92
01/01
-5.2
17
01/08
-9.8
2
09/10
-0.5
46
09/17
6.2
87
09/25
-4.7
21
10/01
7.0
91
10/15
-5.4
17
10/22
-0.5
46
J. Allen headshot

J. Allen

Proj. Value
+3.8
Team Elo Adj
+13.2
Value
Ptile
01/08
2.4
72
01/15
-3.5
25
01/22
1.5
64
09/11
-5.1
19
09/17
6.8
90
09/24
5.0
81
10/01
11.5
98
10/08
7.8
93
10/15
0.1
49
10/22
5.8
85

Team Matchup Ranks

Buccaneers Offense vs Bills Defense
Buccaneers logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
18
3
Yards / Game
20
8
Passing Yards / Game
8
13
Rushing Yards / Game
31
15

EPA

EPA / Play
13
11
EPA / Pass
8
6
EPA / Rush
30
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
32
Interceptions / Game
9
5
Fumbles / Game
13
3
Turnover EPA / Game
28
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
18
4th Down Efficiency
2
15
RZ Efficiency
27
18
Bills Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Bills logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
6
5
Yards / Game
5
20
Passing Yards / Game
19
31
Rushing Yards / Game
5
4

EPA

EPA / Play
3
15
EPA / Pass
6
22
EPA / Rush
1
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
13
Interceptions / Game
26
18
Fumbles / Game
15
4
Turnover EPA / Game
22
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
22
4th Down Efficiency
7
7
RZ Efficiency
4
3

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TB logo

Buccaneers

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/25
3
W
L
U
01/01
6
W
W
O
01/08
-13
L
L
O
01/16
-17
L
L
U
09/10
3
W
W
U
09/17
10
W
W
O
09/25
-14
L
L
U
10/01
17
W
W
U
10/15
-14
L
L
U
10/22
-3
L
L
U
BUF logo

Bills

6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/08
12
W
W
O
01/15
3
W
L
O
01/22
-17
L
L
U
09/11
-6
L
L
U
09/17
28
W
W
O
09/24
34
W
W
U
10/01
28
W
W
O
10/08
-5
L
L
U
10/15
5
W
L
U
10/22
-4
L
L
O