TBBuccaneers
3-3
18
TBD
New Era Field
66°F
10 mph
24
BUFBills
4-3
TBD
New Era Field
66°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
10
0
8
18
Bills
3
14
7
0
24
Spread
+10
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
304
427
Total Plays
62
68
Yards / Play
4.9
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.09
Passing Yards
224
312
Comp/Att
25/42(60%)
31/40(78%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
7.8
EPA / Pass
-0.03
+0.05
Rushing Yards
78
115
Rush Attempts
17
26
Yards / Rush
4.6
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.21
+0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
25
Passing 1st downs
10
16
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
27%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-5.55
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-13
-12
Sack EPA
-4.27
-3.19
Penalties
11
9
Penalty Yards
74
86
Penalty EPA
-4.93
-13.08
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.5
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model80.4%
Spread Pick
Bills-10.0
Expected Value
+3.8%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+282
Home nfelo
1,637
Away nfelo
1,446
Home Field
+58.3
Base HFA
+43.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+31.8
Home QB Adjustment
+13.1
Away QB Adjustment
-18.7
Market Regression
-2.9
Final Difference
244.9
Model Spread
-10.5
Quarterbacks
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
-18.7
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+13.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
3
Yards / Game
20
8
Passing Yards / Game
8
13
Rushing Yards / Game
31
15
EPA
EPA / Play
13
11
EPA / Pass
8
6
EPA / Rush
30
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
32
Interceptions / Game
9
5
Fumbles / Game
13
3
Turnover EPA / Game
28
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
18
4th Down Efficiency
2
15
RZ Efficiency
27
18
Bills Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
5
Yards / Game
5
20
Passing Yards / Game
19
31
Rushing Yards / Game
5
4
EPA
EPA / Play
3
15
EPA / Pass
6
22
EPA / Rush
1
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
13
Interceptions / Game
26
18
Fumbles / Game
15
4
Turnover EPA / Game
22
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
22
4th Down Efficiency
7
7
RZ Efficiency
4
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Bills
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U