
TBBuccaneers
6-5
23
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
64°F
4 mph
31
DENBroncos
8-3

TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
64°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
10
0
0
13
23
Broncos
7
0
15
3
25
Spread


8
P
Total
OVER
50
Game Statistics
General


Total Yards
306
333
Total Plays
61
67
Yards / Play
5.0
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.07
+0.01
Passing Yards
235
--
Comp/Att
18/39(46%)
27/38(71%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
--
EPA / Pass
-0.11
+0.12
Rushing Yards
71
91
Rush Attempts
21
29
Yards / Rush
3.4
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.18
Downs & Conversions


1st Downs
18
25
Passing 1st downs
12
14
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
5
3rd Down %
25%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
67%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays


Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.60
-5.66
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-7
--
Sack EPA
-1.39
--
Penalties
11
8
Penalty Yards
80
75
Penalty EPA
-10.04
-9.35
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner

DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-8.0
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market75.7%
Model75.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+217
Home nfelo
1,618
Away nfelo
1,499
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+13.5
Home QB Adjustment
+24.5
Away QB Adjustment
+11.0
Market Regression
+17.0
Final Difference
197.4
Model Spread
-8.0
Quarterbacks

J. Freeman
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
+11.0

P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+24.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Broncos Defense


Total
Points / Game
12
4
Yards / Game
12
2
Passing Yards / Game
7
19
Rushing Yards / Game
16
4
EPA
EPA / Play
15
3
EPA / Pass
15
6
EPA / Rush
9
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
31
Interceptions / Game
22
14
Fumbles / Game
3
21
Turnover EPA / Game
21
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
1
4th Down Efficiency
23
5
RZ Efficiency
8
25
Broncos Offense vs Buccaneers Defense


Total
Points / Game
2
23
Yards / Game
4
29
Passing Yards / Game
29
17
Rushing Yards / Game
15
1
EPA
EPA / Play
4
18
EPA / Pass
2
25
EPA / Rush
26
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
26
Interceptions / Game
8
9
Fumbles / Game
27
26
Turnover EPA / Game
12
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
25
4th Down Efficiency
3
9
RZ Efficiency
4
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

Buccaneers
5-5
SU
7-2-1
ATS
8-2
O/U

Broncos
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U