TBBuccaneers
7-5
17
TBD
FedExField
43°F
5 mph
16
WASCommanders
5-7
TBD
FedExField
43°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
3
6
8
17
Commanders
0
10
0
6
16
Spread
1
P
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
367
399
Total Plays
53
65
Yards / Play
6.9
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.06
-0.01
Passing Yards
262
211
Comp/Att
15/25(60%)
22/35(63%)
Yards / Pass
10.5
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.50
+0.23
Rushing Yards
105
188
Rush Attempts
27
28
Yards / Rush
3.9
6.7
EPA / Rush
-0.42
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
22
Passing 1st downs
11
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
42%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
0%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-10.49
-4.10
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-4
-17
Sack EPA
-1.46
-3.31
Penalties
2
4
Penalty Yards
14
25
Penalty EPA
-2.67
-2.17
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-39
Home nfelo
1,397
Away nfelo
1,465
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-33.2
Home QB Adjustment
-15.6
Away QB Adjustment
+17.6
Market Regression
+30.1
Final Difference
-16.0
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
J. Freeman
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
+17.6
D. McNabb
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-15.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
22
Yards / Game
18
31
Passing Yards / Game
17
31
Rushing Yards / Game
8
25
EPA
EPA / Play
12
12
EPA / Pass
8
26
EPA / Rush
9
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
5
Interceptions / Game
2
19
Fumbles / Game
19
10
Turnover EPA / Game
24
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
8
4th Down Efficiency
1
29
RZ Efficiency
17
13
Commanders Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
7
Yards / Game
17
15
Passing Yards / Game
4
1
Rushing Yards / Game
30
28
EPA
EPA / Play
28
22
EPA / Pass
25
14
EPA / Rush
19
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
23
Interceptions / Game
21
8
Fumbles / Game
22
14
Turnover EPA / Game
9
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
30
4th Down Efficiency
12
21
RZ Efficiency
20
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Commanders
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U