TBBuccaneers
1-1
10
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
016
DALCowboys
1-1
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
7
0
0
3
10
Cowboys
7
3
0
6
16
Spread
+7.5
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
166
297
Total Plays
55
66
Yards / Play
3.0
4.5
EPA / Play
-0.34
-0.19
Passing Yards
91
259
Comp/Att
10/28(36%)
25/39(64%)
Yards / Pass
3.3
6.6
EPA / Pass
-0.53
-0.18
Rushing Yards
75
38
Rush Attempts
25
23
Yards / Rush
3.0
1.7
EPA / Rush
-0.08
-0.36
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
14
Passing 1st downs
5
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
20%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
16
Red Zone %
50%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
3
Turnover EPA
-3.09
-6.72
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-19
-24
Sack EPA
-3.55
-12.07
Penalties
10
13
Penalty Yards
69
105
Penalty EPA
-9.94
-10.64
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+168
Home nfelo
1,518
Away nfelo
1,438
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+14.3
Home QB Adjustment
+7.4
Away QB Adjustment
-6.8
Market Regression
-12.1
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
J. Freeman
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-6.8
A. Romo
Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+7.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
24
Yards / Game
12
18
Passing Yards / Game
7
16
Rushing Yards / Game
16
20
EPA
EPA / Play
15
25
EPA / Pass
15
28
EPA / Rush
9
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
15
Interceptions / Game
22
31
Fumbles / Game
3
22
Turnover EPA / Game
21
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
23
4th Down Efficiency
23
22
RZ Efficiency
8
19
Cowboys Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
23
Yards / Game
8
29
Passing Yards / Game
1
17
Rushing Yards / Game
31
1
EPA
EPA / Play
13
18
EPA / Pass
10
25
EPA / Rush
24
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
26
Interceptions / Game
28
9
Fumbles / Game
19
26
Turnover EPA / Game
9
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
25
4th Down Efficiency
1
9
RZ Efficiency
20
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U
Cowboys
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U