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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. buccaneers @ cowboys week 3, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TB logo
TBBuccaneers
1-1
10
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0
16
DALCowboys
1-1
DAL logo
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
7
0
0
3
10
Cowboys
7
3
0
6
16

Spread

TB logo
+7.5

Total

UNDER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Buccaneers logo
Cowboys logo
Total Yards
166
297
Total Plays
55
66
Yards / Play
3.0
4.5
EPA / Play
-0.34
-0.19
Passing Yards
91
259
Comp/Att
10/28(36%)
25/39(64%)
Yards / Pass
3.3
6.6
EPA / Pass
-0.53
-0.18
Rushing Yards
75
38
Rush Attempts
25
23
Yards / Rush
3.0
1.7
EPA / Rush
-0.08
-0.36
Downs & Conversions
Buccaneers logo
Cowboys logo
1st Downs
12
14
Passing 1st downs
5
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
20%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
16
Red Zone %
50%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Buccaneers logo
Cowboys logo
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
3
Turnover EPA
-3.09
-6.72
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-19
-24
Sack EPA
-3.55
-12.07
Penalties
10
13
Penalty Yards
69
105
Penalty EPA
-9.94
-10.64

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+163
Home nfelo
1,514
Away nfelo
1,438
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+14.3
Home QB Adjustment
+7.4
Away QB Adjustment
-6.8
Market Regression
-12.1
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5

Quarterbacks

J. Freeman headshot

J. Freeman

Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-6.8
Value
Ptile
11/06
5.4
83
11/13
-8.7
4
11/20
4.4
78
11/27
-3.7
27
12/11
-4.9
19
12/17
-0.4
49
12/24
2.3
68
01/01
0.0
52
09/09
-2.2
34
09/16
-3.2
28
A. Romo headshot

A. Romo

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+7.4
Value
Ptile
11/13
9.8
96
11/20
2.5
69
11/24
-0.4
49
12/04
0.1
53
12/11
6.4
87
12/17
7.2
91
12/24
-5.3
17
01/01
0.0
52
09/05
5.5
84
09/16
-0.1
49

Team Matchup Ranks

Buccaneers Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Buccaneers logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
12
24
Yards / Game
12
18
Passing Yards / Game
7
16
Rushing Yards / Game
16
20

EPA

EPA / Play
15
25
EPA / Pass
15
28
EPA / Rush
9
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
15
Interceptions / Game
22
31
Fumbles / Game
3
22
Turnover EPA / Game
21
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
23
4th Down Efficiency
23
22
RZ Efficiency
8
19
Cowboys Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Cowboys logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
14
23
Yards / Game
8
29
Passing Yards / Game
1
17
Rushing Yards / Game
31
1

EPA

EPA / Play
13
18
EPA / Pass
10
25
EPA / Rush
24
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
26
Interceptions / Game
28
9
Fumbles / Game
19
26
Turnover EPA / Game
9
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
25
4th Down Efficiency
1
9
RZ Efficiency
20
17

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TB logo

Buccaneers

1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/13
-28
L
L
O
11/20
-9
L
W
O
11/27
-6
L
L
U
12/04
-19
L
L
O
12/11
-27
L
L
O
12/17
-16
L
L
U
12/24
-32
L
L
O
01/01
-21
L
L
O
09/09
6
W
W
U
09/16
-7
L
W
O
DAL logo

Cowboys

5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/13
37
W
W
O
11/20
3
W
L
O
11/24
1
W
L
U
12/04
-6
L
L
U
12/11
-3
L
L
O
12/17
16
W
W
U
12/24
-13
L
L
U
01/01
-17
L
L
U
09/05
7
W
W
U
09/16
-20
L
L
U