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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. buccaneers @ cowboys week 15, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TB logo
TBBuccaneers
8-5
20
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0
26
DALCowboys
11-2
DAL logo
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
3
3
14
0
20
Cowboys
0
17
0
9
26

Spread

TB logo
+7

Total

UNDER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Buccaneers logo
Cowboys logo
Total Yards
276
449
Total Plays
59
71
Yards / Play
4.7
6.3
EPA / Play
-0.14
-0.03
Passing Yards
224
264
Comp/Att
17/35(49%)
32/36(89%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
7.3
EPA / Pass
-0.09
+0.08
Rushing Yards
52
185
Rush Attempts
20
32
Yards / Rush
2.6
5.8
EPA / Rush
-0.24
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
Buccaneers logo
Cowboys logo
1st Downs
16
24
Passing 1st downs
12
14
Rushing 1st downs
3
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
33%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Buccaneers logo
Cowboys logo
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-9.93
-5.21
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-23
-15
Sack EPA
-8.76
-4.28
Penalties
3
8
Penalty Yards
--
91
Penalty EPA
--
-6.85

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+178
Home nfelo
1,577
Away nfelo
1,505
Home Field
+88.8
Base HFA
+58.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
+10.4
Net QB Adjustment
+17.1
Home QB Adjustment
+22.3
Away QB Adjustment
+5.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

J. Winston headshot

J. Winston

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+5.2
Value
Ptile
10/02
-8.3
4
10/10
-0.7
43
10/23
2.5
68
10/30
-1.9
35
11/03
2.9
71
11/13
0.0
49
11/20
4.5
81
11/27
3.7
76
12/04
0.0
48
12/11
-3.6
22
R. Prescott headshot

R. Prescott

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+22.3
Value
Ptile
10/02
2.4
68
10/09
3.9
77
10/16
2.3
67
10/30
3.0
72
11/06
7.2
90
11/13
4.1
80
11/20
9.1
95
11/24
3.9
78
12/01
-0.7
43
12/11
-9.4
3

Team Matchup Ranks

Buccaneers Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Buccaneers logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
18
8
Yards / Game
18
16
Passing Yards / Game
13
26
Rushing Yards / Game
25
1

EPA

EPA / Play
18
15
EPA / Pass
9
20
EPA / Rush
28
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
24
Interceptions / Game
27
26
Fumbles / Game
25
14
Turnover EPA / Game
12
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
17
4th Down Efficiency
22
23
RZ Efficiency
21
18
Cowboys Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Cowboys logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
5
15
Yards / Game
5
22
Passing Yards / Game
20
20
Rushing Yards / Game
2
22

EPA

EPA / Play
4
12
EPA / Pass
4
10
EPA / Rush
2
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
16
Interceptions / Game
4
4
Fumbles / Game
21
12
Turnover EPA / Game
24
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
1
4th Down Efficiency
1
31
RZ Efficiency
6
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TB logo

Buccaneers

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/02
-20
L
L
U
10/10
3
W
W
U
10/23
17
W
W
O
10/30
-6
L
L
O
11/03
-15
L
L
O
11/13
26
W
W
O
11/20
2
W
W
U
11/27
9
W
W
U
12/04
7
W
W
P
12/11
5
W
W
U
DAL logo

Cowboys

9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/02
7
W
W
U
10/09
14
W
W
U
10/16
14
W
W
U
10/30
6
W
W
O
11/06
25
W
W
U
11/13
5
W
W
O
11/20
10
W
W
U
11/24
5
W
L
O
12/01
2
W
L
U
12/11
-3
L
L
U