TBBuccaneers
8-5
20
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
026
DALCowboys
11-2
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
3
3
14
0
20
Cowboys
0
17
0
9
26
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
276
449
Total Plays
59
71
Yards / Play
4.7
6.3
EPA / Play
-0.14
-0.03
Passing Yards
224
264
Comp/Att
17/35(49%)
32/36(89%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
7.3
EPA / Pass
-0.09
+0.08
Rushing Yards
52
185
Rush Attempts
20
32
Yards / Rush
2.6
5.8
EPA / Rush
-0.24
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
24
Passing 1st downs
12
14
Rushing 1st downs
3
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
33%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-9.93
-5.21
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-23
-15
Sack EPA
-8.76
-4.28
Penalties
3
8
Penalty Yards
--
91
Penalty EPA
--
-6.85
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+176
Home nfelo
1,577
Away nfelo
1,506
Home Field
+87.7
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+17.1
Home QB Adjustment
+22.3
Away QB Adjustment
+5.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+5.2
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
+22.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
8
Yards / Game
18
16
Passing Yards / Game
13
26
Rushing Yards / Game
25
1
EPA
EPA / Play
18
15
EPA / Pass
9
20
EPA / Rush
28
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
24
Interceptions / Game
27
26
Fumbles / Game
25
14
Turnover EPA / Game
12
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
17
4th Down Efficiency
22
23
RZ Efficiency
21
18
Cowboys Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
15
Yards / Game
5
22
Passing Yards / Game
20
20
Rushing Yards / Game
2
22
EPA
EPA / Play
4
12
EPA / Pass
4
10
EPA / Rush
2
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
16
Interceptions / Game
4
4
Fumbles / Game
21
12
Turnover EPA / Game
24
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
1
4th Down Efficiency
1
31
RZ Efficiency
6
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Cowboys
9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U