TBBuccaneers
5-9
20
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
027
DALCowboys
8-6
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
3
10
0
7
20
Cowboys
8
3
10
0
21
Spread
7
P
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
383
232
Total Plays
75
50
Yards / Play
5.1
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.14
-0.05
Passing Yards
320
152
Comp/Att
34/48(71%)
20/25(80%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.17
+0.10
Rushing Yards
63
80
Rush Attempts
24
24
Yards / Rush
2.6
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.64
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
16
Passing 1st downs
19
9
Rushing 1st downs
1
6
Penalty 1st downs
7
1
3rd Down %
31%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
9
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-15.57
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-16
-9
Sack EPA
-12.58
-0.65
Penalties
9
10
Penalty Yards
72
67
Penalty EPA
-8.61
-11.63
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+175
Home nfelo
1,525
Away nfelo
1,429
Home Field
+67.4
Base HFA
+57.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.1
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+11.9
Home QB Adjustment
+3.1
Away QB Adjustment
-8.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-8.8
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
+3.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
7
Yards / Game
2
8
Passing Yards / Game
1
16
Rushing Yards / Game
28
8
EPA
EPA / Play
12
12
EPA / Pass
9
19
EPA / Rush
26
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
7
Interceptions / Game
32
27
Fumbles / Game
25
12
Turnover EPA / Game
2
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
24
4th Down Efficiency
5
16
RZ Efficiency
15
7
Cowboys Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
31
Yards / Game
22
27
Passing Yards / Game
15
32
Rushing Yards / Game
10
24
EPA
EPA / Play
19
31
EPA / Pass
17
31
EPA / Rush
7
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
14
Interceptions / Game
4
26
Fumbles / Game
13
26
Turnover EPA / Game
25
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
22
4th Down Efficiency
10
7
RZ Efficiency
26
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Cowboys
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U