TBBuccaneers
0-2
14
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
056
ATLFalcons
1-1
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
0
0
8
8
Falcons
15
8
21
0
44
Spread
-6.5
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
217
488
Total Plays
57
65
Yards / Play
3.8
7.5
EPA / Play
-0.66
+0.09
Passing Yards
153
344
Comp/Att
22/36(61%)
24/28(86%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
12.3
EPA / Pass
-0.47
+0.73
Rushing Yards
64
144
Rush Attempts
18
36
Yards / Rush
3.6
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.67
-0.35
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
10
26
Passing 1st downs
7
17
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
23%
73%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
4
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
3
3
Turnover EPA
-21.18
-16.09
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-26
-6
Sack EPA
-3.63
-1.50
Penalties
11
5
Penalty Yards
110
50
Penalty EPA
-9.01
+2.27
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model67.5%
Spread Pick
Buccaneers+6.5
Expected Value
+1.3%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+96
Home nfelo
1,472
Away nfelo
1,422
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-10.6
Home QB Adjustment
+6.0
Away QB Adjustment
+16.7
Market Regression
+3.2
Final Difference
126.9
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
J. McCown
Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+16.7
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+6.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
27
Yards / Game
30
32
Passing Yards / Game
14
8
Rushing Yards / Game
29
21
EPA
EPA / Play
29
28
EPA / Pass
27
29
EPA / Rush
25
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
20
Interceptions / Game
31
13
Fumbles / Game
22
16
Turnover EPA / Game
6
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
32
4th Down Efficiency
29
19
RZ Efficiency
18
21
Falcons Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
25
Yards / Game
7
24
Passing Yards / Game
2
24
Rushing Yards / Game
24
18
EPA
EPA / Play
11
24
EPA / Pass
11
28
EPA / Rush
22
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
3
Interceptions / Game
17
16
Fumbles / Game
15
10
Turnover EPA / Game
14
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
27
4th Down Efficiency
14
24
RZ Efficiency
6
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Falcons
3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U