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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. buccaneers @ falcons week 3, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TB logo
TBBuccaneers
0-2
14
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0
56
ATLFalcons
1-1
ATL logo
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
0
0
8
8
Falcons
15
8
21
0
44

Spread

ATL logo
-6.5

Total

OVER
47

Game Statistics

General
Buccaneers logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
217
488
Total Plays
57
65
Yards / Play
3.8
7.5
EPA / Play
-0.66
+0.09
Passing Yards
153
344
Comp/Att
22/36(61%)
24/28(86%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
12.3
EPA / Pass
-0.47
+0.73
Rushing Yards
64
144
Rush Attempts
18
36
Yards / Rush
3.6
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.67
-0.35
Downs & Conversions
Buccaneers logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
10
26
Passing 1st downs
7
17
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
23%
73%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Buccaneers logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
4
4
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
3
3
Turnover EPA
-21.18
-16.09
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-26
-6
Sack EPA
-3.63
-1.50
Penalties
11
5
Penalty Yards
110
50
Penalty EPA
-9.01
+2.27

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ATL logo
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-5.0

Win Probability

Market71.0%
Model67.4%
Spread Pick
TB logo
Buccaneers+6.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+2.1%
Cover Probability
53.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+94
Home nfelo
1,470
Away nfelo
1,421
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-10.6
Home QB Adjustment
+6.0
Away QB Adjustment
+16.7
Market Regression
+2.9
Final Difference
126.4
Model Spread
-5.0

Quarterbacks

J. McCown headshot

J. McCown

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+16.7
Value
Ptile
12/23
-4.6
21
12/25
1.9
65
01/01
-8.8
3
11/04
3.6
75
11/17
-0.2
49
11/24
8.2
92
12/01
1.9
63
12/09
12.6
99
09/07
-2.2
34
09/14
2.1
66
M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+6.0
Value
Ptile
11/10
1.2
59
11/17
-5.4
18
11/21
1.3
60
12/01
-0.1
49
12/08
-0.9
45
12/15
-1.4
43
12/23
6.9
90
12/29
-4.4
23
09/07
13.1
99
09/14
-4.5
23

Team Matchup Ranks

Buccaneers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Buccaneers logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
29
27
Yards / Game
30
32
Passing Yards / Game
14
8
Rushing Yards / Game
29
21

EPA

EPA / Play
29
28
EPA / Pass
27
29
EPA / Rush
25
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
20
Interceptions / Game
31
13
Fumbles / Game
22
16
Turnover EPA / Game
6
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
32
4th Down Efficiency
29
19
RZ Efficiency
18
21
Falcons Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Falcons logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
12
25
Yards / Game
7
24
Passing Yards / Game
2
24
Rushing Yards / Game
24
18

EPA

EPA / Play
11
24
EPA / Pass
11
28
EPA / Rush
22
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
3
Interceptions / Game
17
16
Fumbles / Game
15
10
Turnover EPA / Game
14
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
27
4th Down Efficiency
14
24
RZ Efficiency
6
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TB logo

Buccaneers

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/11
3
W
W
O
11/17
13
W
W
O
11/24
3
W
W
U
12/01
-21
L
L
U
12/08
21
W
W
U
12/15
-19
L
L
O
12/22
-10
L
L
U
12/29
-25
L
L
O
09/07
-6
L
L
U
09/14
-2
L
L
U
ATL logo

Falcons

3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/10
-23
L
L
U
11/17
-13
L
L
O
11/21
-4
L
W
U
12/01
3
W
W
O
12/08
-1
L
W
U
12/15
1
W
L
O
12/23
-10
L
W
O
12/29
-1
L
W
U
09/07
3
W
W
O
09/14
-14
L
L
U