TBBuccaneers
2-4
23
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
020
ATLFalcons
6-1
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Buccaneers
3
10
7
0
3
23
Falcons
3
0
7
10
0
20
Spread
+8
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
290
496
Total Plays
63
73
Yards / Play
4.6
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.05
-0.04
Passing Yards
173
395
Comp/Att
16/29(55%)
37/45(82%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
8.8
EPA / Pass
+0.08
+0.31
Rushing Yards
117
101
Rush Attempts
32
27
Yards / Rush
3.7
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.48
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
28
Passing 1st downs
11
19
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
5
2
3rd Down %
46%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
33%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
3
Turnover EPA
--
-20.76
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-4
-2
Sack EPA
-3.04
-1.06
Penalties
8
11
Penalty Yards
43
124
Penalty EPA
-6.62
-14.45
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-8.0
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market75.7%
Model75.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+163
Home nfelo
1,497
Away nfelo
1,376
Home Field
+55.8
Base HFA
+62.1
Divisional Adj
-28.0
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-14.3
Home QB Adjustment
-5.3
Away QB Adjustment
+8.9
Market Regression
+12.1
Final Difference
197.4
Model Spread
-8.0
Quarterbacks
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+8.9
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-5.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
14
Yards / Game
4
15
Passing Yards / Game
24
3
Rushing Yards / Game
4
14
EPA
EPA / Play
20
15
EPA / Pass
13
17
EPA / Rush
13
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
24
Interceptions / Game
20
10
Fumbles / Game
21
23
Turnover EPA / Game
9
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
27
4th Down Efficiency
11
5
RZ Efficiency
23
26
Falcons Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
26
Yards / Game
5
11
Passing Yards / Game
4
25
Rushing Yards / Game
19
9
EPA
EPA / Play
16
25
EPA / Pass
8
27
EPA / Rush
29
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
28
Interceptions / Game
24
20
Fumbles / Game
29
5
Turnover EPA / Game
7
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
30
4th Down Efficiency
14
27
RZ Efficiency
17
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Falcons
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
2-7-1
O/U