TBBuccaneers
8-5
31
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
027
ATLFalcons
4-9
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
0
21
10
31
Falcons
7
10
7
3
27
Spread
+6
Total
OVER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
416
369
Total Plays
66
65
Yards / Play
6.3
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.06
Passing Yards
365
332
Comp/Att
31/45(69%)
34/49(69%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.32
+0.09
Rushing Yards
51
37
Rush Attempts
18
13
Yards / Rush
2.8
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.22
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
23
Passing 1st downs
19
21
Rushing 1st downs
6
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
40%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
15
Red Zone %
60%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-25
-24
Sack EPA
-6.30
-4.09
Penalties
1
2
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model74.0%
Spread Pick
Buccaneers-6.0
Expected Value
+10.5%
Cover Probability
55.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-221
Home nfelo
1,441
Away nfelo
1,631
Home Field
+5.6
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-37.0
Home QB Adjustment
-22.2
Away QB Adjustment
+14.8
Market Regression
-10.6
Final Difference
-181.7
Model Spread
+7.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+14.8
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-22.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
19
Yards / Game
9
29
Passing Yards / Game
12
30
Rushing Yards / Game
25
7
EPA
EPA / Play
5
19
EPA / Pass
5
26
EPA / Rush
21
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
11
Interceptions / Game
15
16
Fumbles / Game
4
13
Turnover EPA / Game
22
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
16
4th Down Efficiency
13
7
RZ Efficiency
11
27
Falcons Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
7
Yards / Game
15
8
Passing Yards / Game
1
21
Rushing Yards / Game
28
1
EPA
EPA / Play
14
6
EPA / Pass
11
6
EPA / Rush
27
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
30
Interceptions / Game
11
3
Fumbles / Game
12
10
Turnover EPA / Game
26
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
17
4th Down Efficiency
15
13
RZ Efficiency
26
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Falcons
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U