TBBuccaneers
5-2
25
TBD
MetLife Stadium
39°F
8 mph
23
NYGGiants
1-6
TBD
MetLife Stadium
39°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
3
3
9
10
25
Giants
7
7
3
6
23
Spread
+12.5
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
344
357
Total Plays
67
70
Yards / Play
5.1
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.11
+0.01
Passing Yards
263
256
Comp/Att
28/41(68%)
26/43(60%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.13
+0.05
Rushing Yards
81
101
Rush Attempts
24
24
Yards / Rush
3.4
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.21
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
24
Passing 1st downs
18
17
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
33%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
67%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.61
-9.08
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-16
-18
Sack EPA
-3.85
-4.56
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
20
73
Penalty EPA
-2.78
-10.31
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-12.5
Model
-11.0
Win Probability
Market84.5%
Model83.0%
Spread Pick
Giants+12.5
Expected Value
+0.8%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-244
Home nfelo
1,398
Away nfelo
1,616
Home Field
+8.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-34.1
Home QB Adjustment
-6.1
Away QB Adjustment
+28.0
Market Regression
-33.3
Final Difference
-275.2
Model Spread
+11.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+28.0
D. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-6.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
9
Yards / Game
9
12
Passing Yards / Game
12
26
Rushing Yards / Game
25
11
EPA
EPA / Play
5
15
EPA / Pass
5
17
EPA / Rush
21
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
2
Interceptions / Game
15
20
Fumbles / Game
4
13
Turnover EPA / Game
22
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
24
4th Down Efficiency
13
22
RZ Efficiency
11
3
Giants Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
7
Yards / Game
31
8
Passing Yards / Game
26
21
Rushing Yards / Game
19
1
EPA
EPA / Play
28
6
EPA / Pass
27
6
EPA / Rush
19
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
30
Interceptions / Game
11
3
Fumbles / Game
30
10
Turnover EPA / Game
12
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
17
4th Down Efficiency
8
13
RZ Efficiency
31
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Giants
3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U