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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. buccaneers @ giants week 12, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TB logo
TBBuccaneers
4-6
30
TBD
MetLife Stadium
50°F
13 mph
7
NYGGiants
2-8
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
50°F
13 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
7
16
7
0
30
Giants
0
0
0
7
7

Spread

TB logo
-6.5

Total

UNDER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Buccaneers logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
451
245
Total Plays
62
56
Yards / Play
7.3
4.4
EPA / Play
+0.26
-0.23
Passing Yards
--
169
Comp/Att
24/30(80%)
22/32(69%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.3
EPA / Pass
+0.56
-0.20
Rushing Yards
157
76
Rush Attempts
32
20
Yards / Rush
4.9
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.37
Downs & Conversions
Buccaneers logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
24
17
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
10
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
55%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
80%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Buccaneers logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.46
-5.22
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-23
Sack EPA
--
-5.77
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
29
42
Penalty EPA
-2.70
-5.47

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TB logo
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market71.4%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
NYG logo
Giants+6.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+2.9%
Cover Probability
53.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-85
Home nfelo
1,415
Away nfelo
1,482
Home Field
+35.0
Base HFA
+40.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+11.7
Away Bye Adj
-31.7
Surface Adj
+14.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-52.7
Home QB Adjustment
-29.2
Away QB Adjustment
+23.5
Market Regression
+3.3
Final Difference
-123.7
Model Spread
+4.5

Quarterbacks

B. Mayfield headshot

B. Mayfield

Proj. Value
-0.3
Team Elo Adj
+23.5
Value
Ptile
09/08
9.2
95
09/15
-3.8
24
09/22
-7.5
7
09/29
6.6
87
10/03
5.7
82
10/13
5.1
80
10/21
4.7
78
10/27
5.9
84
11/04
3.2
71
11/10
-2.9
29
T. DeVito headshot

T. DeVito

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-29.2
Value
Ptile
11/12
-6.0
14
11/19
-4.0
24
11/26
-4.7
21
12/11
6.7
89
12/17
-6.3
13
12/25
-6.4
12

Team Matchup Ranks

Buccaneers Offense vs Giants Defense
Buccaneers logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
4
20
Yards / Game
3
23
Passing Yards / Game
8
6
Rushing Yards / Game
5
26

EPA

EPA / Play
5
22
EPA / Pass
4
29
EPA / Rush
7
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
10
Interceptions / Game
24
31
Fumbles / Game
19
8
Turnover EPA / Game
14
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
19
4th Down Efficiency
8
16
RZ Efficiency
4
10
Giants Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Giants logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
31
17
Yards / Game
30
19
Passing Yards / Game
23
25
Rushing Yards / Game
22
3

EPA

EPA / Play
29
18
EPA / Pass
31
22
EPA / Rush
24
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
18
Interceptions / Game
19
29
Fumbles / Game
22
13
Turnover EPA / Game
6
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
15
4th Down Efficiency
19
24
RZ Efficiency
32
7

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TB logo

Buccaneers

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/08
17
W
W
O
09/15
4
W
W
U
09/22
-19
L
L
U
09/29
17
W
W
O
10/03
-6
L
L
O
10/13
24
W
W
O
10/21
-10
L
L
O
10/27
-5
L
L
O
11/04
-6
L
W
O
11/10
-3
L
W
U
NYG logo

Giants

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/08
-22
L
L
U
09/15
-3
L
L
U
09/22
6
W
W
U
09/26
-5
L
W
U
10/06
9
W
W
O
10/13
-10
L
L
U
10/20
-25
L
L
U
10/28
-8
L
L
O
11/03
-5
L
L
O
11/10
-3
L
L
U