TBBuccaneers
4-6
30
TBD
MetLife Stadium
50°F
13 mph
7
NYGGiants
2-8
TBD
MetLife Stadium
50°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
7
16
7
0
30
Giants
0
0
0
7
7
Spread
-6.5
Total
UNDER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
451
245
Total Plays
62
56
Yards / Play
7.3
4.4
EPA / Play
+0.26
-0.23
Passing Yards
--
169
Comp/Att
24/30(80%)
22/32(69%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.3
EPA / Pass
+0.56
-0.20
Rushing Yards
157
76
Rush Attempts
32
20
Yards / Rush
4.9
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.37
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
17
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
10
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
55%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
80%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.46
-5.22
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-23
Sack EPA
--
-5.77
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
29
42
Penalty EPA
-2.70
-5.47
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market71.4%
Model66.2%
Spread Pick
Giants+6.5
Expected Value
+2.9%
Cover Probability
53.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-79
Home nfelo
1,415
Away nfelo
1,478
Home Field
+35.1
Base HFA
+41.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+11.8
Away Bye Adj
-31.9
Surface Adj
+14.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-52.0
Home QB Adjustment
-28.6
Away QB Adjustment
+23.5
Market Regression
+0.1
Final Difference
-117.1
Model Spread
+4.5
Quarterbacks
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
+23.5
T. DeVito
Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-28.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
20
Yards / Game
3
23
Passing Yards / Game
8
6
Rushing Yards / Game
5
26
EPA
EPA / Play
5
22
EPA / Pass
4
29
EPA / Rush
7
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
10
Interceptions / Game
24
31
Fumbles / Game
19
8
Turnover EPA / Game
14
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
19
4th Down Efficiency
8
16
RZ Efficiency
4
10
Giants Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
17
Yards / Game
30
19
Passing Yards / Game
23
25
Rushing Yards / Game
22
3
EPA
EPA / Play
29
18
EPA / Pass
31
22
EPA / Rush
24
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
18
Interceptions / Game
19
29
Fumbles / Game
22
13
Turnover EPA / Game
6
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
15
4th Down Efficiency
19
24
RZ Efficiency
32
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Giants
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U