TBBuccaneers
11-4
28
TBD
MetLife Stadium
57°F
9 mph
24
NYJJets
4-11
TBD
MetLife Stadium
57°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
7
3
7
11
28
Jets
7
10
7
0
24
Spread
+13
Total
OVER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
469
374
Total Plays
73
60
Yards / Play
6.4
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.23
+0.15
Passing Yards
405
224
Comp/Att
34/50(68%)
19/33(58%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.44
+0.25
Rushing Yards
64
150
Rush Attempts
22
26
Yards / Rush
2.9
5.8
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
22
Passing 1st downs
21
14
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
60%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
9
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
67%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-1.83
-0.03
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-5
-10
Sack EPA
-1.60
-2.19
Penalties
4
2
Penalty Yards
39
14
Penalty EPA
-6.65
-1.64
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-13.0
Model
-13.5
Win Probability
Market85.2%
Model85.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-349
Home nfelo
1,325
Away nfelo
1,697
Home Field
+48.9
Base HFA
+36.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+12.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-25.4
Home QB Adjustment
-20.8
Away QB Adjustment
+4.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-313.3
Model Spread
+13.5
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+4.6
Z. Wilson
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-20.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
32
Yards / Game
3
32
Passing Yards / Game
9
16
Rushing Yards / Game
26
29
EPA
EPA / Play
4
32
EPA / Pass
6
32
EPA / Rush
11
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
4
Interceptions / Game
9
30
Fumbles / Game
19
18
Turnover EPA / Game
29
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
27
4th Down Efficiency
17
26
RZ Efficiency
1
19
Jets Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
7
Yards / Game
26
15
Passing Yards / Game
13
31
Rushing Yards / Game
25
3
EPA
EPA / Play
25
4
EPA / Pass
29
4
EPA / Rush
13
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
31
Interceptions / Game
29
8
Fumbles / Game
7
4
Turnover EPA / Game
9
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
10
4th Down Efficiency
23
8
RZ Efficiency
20
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Jets
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U