TBBuccaneers
1-0
20
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
016
DETLions
1-0
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
6
7
7
0
20
Lions
3
3
10
0
16
Spread
+7.5
Total
UNDER
52
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
216
463
Total Plays
47
83
Yards / Play
4.6
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.10
Passing Yards
146
--
Comp/Att
12/19(63%)
35/56(63%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
--
EPA / Pass
-0.18
-0.18
Rushing Yards
70
139
Rush Attempts
23
27
Yards / Rush
3.0
5.1
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
26
Passing 1st downs
9
16
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
20%
41%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
17
Red Zone %
50%
14%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
7
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.21
-9.77
Sacks
5
--
Sack Yards
-39
--
Sack EPA
-9.86
--
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
35
71
Penalty EPA
-3.40
-8.35
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+151
Home nfelo
1,610
Away nfelo
1,511
Home Field
+63.1
Base HFA
+46.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-10.9
Home QB Adjustment
-2.4
Away QB Adjustment
+8.5
Market Regression
+14.3
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
+8.5
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
-2.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
11
Yards / Game
3
26
Passing Yards / Game
8
16
Rushing Yards / Game
5
6
EPA
EPA / Play
5
7
EPA / Pass
4
6
EPA / Rush
7
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
24
Interceptions / Game
24
7
Fumbles / Game
19
18
Turnover EPA / Game
14
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
1
4th Down Efficiency
8
4
RZ Efficiency
4
12
Lions Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
17
Yards / Game
2
19
Passing Yards / Game
10
25
Rushing Yards / Game
3
3
EPA
EPA / Play
3
18
EPA / Pass
2
22
EPA / Rush
6
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
18
Interceptions / Game
24
29
Fumbles / Game
2
13
Turnover EPA / Game
15
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
15
4th Down Efficiency
4
24
RZ Efficiency
3
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Lions
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
6-4
O/U