TBBuccaneers
5-1
9
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
024
DETLions
4-2
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
3
6
0
9
Lions
7
7
7
3
24
Spread
-6
Total
UNDER
54.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
251
379
Total Plays
67
65
Yards / Play
3.7
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.37
-0.12
Passing Yards
210
215
Comp/Att
28/51(55%)
20/29(69%)
Yards / Pass
4.1
7.4
EPA / Pass
-0.57
-0.30
Rushing Yards
41
164
Rush Attempts
12
32
Yards / Rush
3.4
5.1
EPA / Rush
+0.13
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
17
Passing 1st downs
11
9
Rushing 1st downs
2
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
25%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
13
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-9.26
-7.70
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-18
-26
Sack EPA
-4.45
-9.70
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
35
50
Penalty EPA
-5.51
-6.55
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+150
Home nfelo
1,628
Away nfelo
1,525
Home Field
+55.1
Base HFA
+40.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-9.0
Home QB Adjustment
+11.0
Away QB Adjustment
+20.0
Market Regression
+18.6
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+1.2
Team Elo Adj
+20.0
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.0
Team Elo Adj
+11.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
10
Yards / Game
17
5
Passing Yards / Game
5
10
Rushing Yards / Game
22
8
EPA
EPA / Play
19
7
EPA / Pass
18
5
EPA / Rush
9
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
20
Interceptions / Game
3
11
Fumbles / Game
20
19
Turnover EPA / Game
28
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
4
4th Down Efficiency
20
10
RZ Efficiency
25
25
Lions Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
22
Yards / Game
5
22
Passing Yards / Game
30
12
Rushing Yards / Game
7
10
EPA
EPA / Play
7
13
EPA / Pass
5
15
EPA / Rush
21
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
20
Interceptions / Game
6
3
Fumbles / Game
6
11
Turnover EPA / Game
29
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
17
4th Down Efficiency
15
8
RZ Efficiency
5
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Lions
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U