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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. buccaneers @ lions week 7, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TB logo
TBBuccaneers
5-1
9
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
24
DETLions
4-2
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
3
6
0
9
Lions
7
7
7
3
24

Spread

DET logo
-6

Total

UNDER
54.5

Game Statistics

General
Buccaneers logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
251
379
Total Plays
67
65
Yards / Play
3.7
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.37
-0.12
Passing Yards
210
215
Comp/Att
28/51(55%)
20/29(69%)
Yards / Pass
4.1
7.4
EPA / Pass
-0.57
-0.30
Rushing Yards
41
164
Rush Attempts
12
32
Yards / Rush
3.4
5.1
EPA / Rush
+0.13
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
Buccaneers logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
15
17
Passing 1st downs
11
9
Rushing 1st downs
2
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
25%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
13
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Buccaneers logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-9.26
-7.70
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-18
-26
Sack EPA
-4.45
-9.70
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
35
50
Penalty EPA
-5.51
-6.55

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+143
Home nfelo
1,623
Away nfelo
1,526
Home Field
+55.1
Base HFA
+40.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-9.0
Home QB Adjustment
+11.0
Away QB Adjustment
+20.0
Market Regression
+25.4
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0

Quarterbacks

B. Mayfield headshot

B. Mayfield

Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+20.0
Value
Ptile
12/22
3.9
75
12/29
11.8
99
01/05
4.5
78
01/12
3.0
70
09/07
1.5
61
09/15
2.2
66
09/21
4.4
79
09/28
0.5
56
10/05
11.1
98
10/12
4.5
80
J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+11.0
Value
Ptile
12/22
8.0
93
12/30
7.1
90
01/05
-1.0
42
01/18
-4.6
19
09/07
-1.9
37
09/14
13.3
99
09/22
2.2
66
09/28
-0.3
48
10/05
2.1
65
10/12
4.6
81

Team Matchup Ranks

Buccaneers Offense vs Lions Defense
Buccaneers logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
18
23
Yards / Game
22
18
Passing Yards / Game
11
21
Rushing Yards / Game
21
16

EPA

EPA / Play
22
12
EPA / Pass
24
14
EPA / Rush
9
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
16
Interceptions / Game
11
13
Fumbles / Game
6
19
Turnover EPA / Game
26
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
11
4th Down Efficiency
27
25
RZ Efficiency
21
21
Lions Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Lions logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
3
23
Yards / Game
6
20
Passing Yards / Game
14
24
Rushing Yards / Game
15
7

EPA

EPA / Play
8
16
EPA / Pass
6
20
EPA / Rush
25
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
16
Interceptions / Game
3
13
Fumbles / Game
15
16
Turnover EPA / Game
25
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
21
4th Down Efficiency
15
6
RZ Efficiency
5
30

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TB logo

Buccaneers

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/22
-2
L
L
O
12/29
34
W
W
O
01/05
8
W
L
O
01/12
-3
L
L
U
09/07
3
W
W
U
09/15
1
W
W
U
09/21
2
W
L
O
09/28
-6
L
L
O
10/05
3
W
W
O
10/12
11
W
W
O
DET logo

Lions

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/22
17
W
W
O
12/30
6
W
W
O
01/05
22
W
W
U
01/18
-14
L
L
O
09/07
-14
L
L
U
09/14
31
W
W
O
09/22
8
W
W
O
09/28
24
W
W
U
10/05
13
W
W
O
10/12
-13
L
L
U