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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. buccaneers @ lions week 20, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TB logo
TBBuccaneers
10-8
23
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
31
DETLions
13-5
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
3
7
7
6
23
Lions
3
7
7
14
31

Spread

DET logo
-6

Total

OVER
49.5

Game Statistics

General
Buccaneers logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
408
391
Total Plays
61
71
Yards / Play
6.7
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.02
+0.10
Passing Yards
319
277
Comp/Att
26/42(62%)
30/43(70%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.09
+0.19
Rushing Yards
89
114
Rush Attempts
15
26
Yards / Rush
5.9
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.02
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
Buccaneers logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
23
26
Passing 1st downs
18
18
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
33%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Buccaneers logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.42
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-30
-10
Sack EPA
-8.13
-3.49
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
33
17
Penalty EPA
-5.43
-1.64

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+192
Home nfelo
1,596
Away nfelo
1,488
Home Field
+62.1
Base HFA
+46.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+4.7
Home QB Adjustment
+5.3
Away QB Adjustment
+0.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0

Quarterbacks

B. Mayfield headshot

B. Mayfield

Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+0.6
Value
Ptile
11/12
-0.2
48
11/19
-2.5
32
11/26
-4.6
21
12/03
-4.5
22
12/10
-1.2
41
12/17
6.6
89
12/24
3.0
69
12/31
0.4
52
01/07
-4.6
21
01/15
3.3
72
J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+5.3
Value
Ptile
11/12
6.4
88
11/19
-5.1
19
11/23
4.1
76
12/03
1.8
62
12/10
-9.4
4
12/16
8.7
96
12/24
3.0
70
12/30
-1.9
37
01/07
5.2
82
01/14
1.5
60

Team Matchup Ranks

Buccaneers Offense vs Lions Defense
Buccaneers logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
18
25
Yards / Game
20
23
Passing Yards / Game
8
18
Rushing Yards / Game
31
2

EPA

EPA / Play
13
23
EPA / Pass
8
28
EPA / Rush
30
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
27
Interceptions / Game
9
9
Fumbles / Game
13
29
Turnover EPA / Game
28
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
13
4th Down Efficiency
2
27
RZ Efficiency
27
30
Lions Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Lions logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
5
5
Yards / Game
2
20
Passing Yards / Game
3
31
Rushing Yards / Game
6
4

EPA

EPA / Play
8
15
EPA / Pass
5
22
EPA / Rush
11
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
13
Interceptions / Game
8
18
Fumbles / Game
19
4
Turnover EPA / Game
14
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
22
4th Down Efficiency
13
7
RZ Efficiency
2
3

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TB logo

Buccaneers

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/12
14
W
W
U
11/19
-13
L
W
U
11/26
-7
L
L
O
12/03
3
W
L
O
12/10
4
W
W
O
12/17
14
W
W
O
12/24
18
W
W
U
12/31
-10
L
L
U
01/07
9
W
W
U
01/15
23
W
W
U
DET logo

Lions

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/12
3
W
W
O
11/19
5
W
L
O
11/23
-7
L
L
O
12/03
5
W
W
O
12/10
-15
L
L
U
12/16
25
W
W
O
12/24
6
W
W
O
12/30
-1
L
W
U
01/07
10
W
W
O
01/14
1
W
L
U