TBBuccaneers
10-8
23
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
031
DETLions
13-5
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
3
7
7
6
23
Lions
3
7
7
14
31
Spread
-6
Total
OVER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
408
391
Total Plays
61
71
Yards / Play
6.7
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.02
+0.10
Passing Yards
319
277
Comp/Att
26/42(62%)
30/43(70%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.09
+0.19
Rushing Yards
89
114
Rush Attempts
15
26
Yards / Rush
5.9
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.02
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
26
Passing 1st downs
18
18
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
33%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.42
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-30
-10
Sack EPA
-8.13
-3.49
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
33
17
Penalty EPA
-5.43
-1.64
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+189
Home nfelo
1,594
Away nfelo
1,489
Home Field
+62.2
Base HFA
+46.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+4.7
Home QB Adjustment
+5.2
Away QB Adjustment
+0.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
+0.4
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+5.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
25
Yards / Game
20
23
Passing Yards / Game
8
18
Rushing Yards / Game
31
2
EPA
EPA / Play
13
23
EPA / Pass
8
28
EPA / Rush
30
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
27
Interceptions / Game
9
9
Fumbles / Game
13
29
Turnover EPA / Game
28
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
13
4th Down Efficiency
2
27
RZ Efficiency
27
30
Lions Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
5
Yards / Game
2
20
Passing Yards / Game
3
31
Rushing Yards / Game
6
4
EPA
EPA / Play
8
15
EPA / Pass
5
22
EPA / Rush
11
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
13
Interceptions / Game
8
18
Fumbles / Game
19
4
Turnover EPA / Game
14
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
22
4th Down Efficiency
13
7
RZ Efficiency
2
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Lions
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U