TBBuccaneers
4-5
26
TBD
Lambeau Field
32°F
7 mph
35
GBPackers
9-0
TBD
Lambeau Field
32°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
10
3
13
26
Packers
7
14
0
14
35
Spread
+13.5
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
455
378
Total Plays
61
59
Yards / Play
7.5
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.14
+0.26
Passing Yards
334
287
Comp/Att
28/39(72%)
23/34(68%)
Yards / Pass
8.6
8.4
EPA / Pass
+0.23
+0.29
Rushing Yards
121
91
Rush Attempts
20
23
Yards / Rush
6.0
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.08
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
24
Passing 1st downs
17
15
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
45%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
50%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.81
-5.12
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-8
-12
Sack EPA
-1.68
-3.13
Penalties
9
5
Penalty Yards
55
37
Penalty EPA
-8.57
-1.17
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-13.5
Model
-14.5
Win Probability
Market86.2%
Model87.7%
Spread Pick
Packers-13.5
Expected Value
+11.6%
Cover Probability
58.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+378
Home nfelo
1,730
Away nfelo
1,440
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+36.4
Home QB Adjustment
+28.9
Away QB Adjustment
-7.5
Market Regression
+3.9
Final Difference
341.1
Model Spread
-14.5
Quarterbacks
J. Freeman
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-7.5
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+28.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
22
Yards / Game
21
32
Passing Yards / Game
14
32
Rushing Yards / Game
31
13
EPA
EPA / Play
27
23
EPA / Pass
24
23
EPA / Rush
29
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
10
Interceptions / Game
29
1
Fumbles / Game
29
24
Turnover EPA / Game
1
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
27
4th Down Efficiency
18
3
RZ Efficiency
17
17
Packers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
32
Yards / Game
3
30
Passing Yards / Game
1
5
Rushing Yards / Game
25
32
EPA
EPA / Play
2
32
EPA / Pass
1
30
EPA / Rush
16
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
21
Interceptions / Game
2
20
Fumbles / Game
4
4
Turnover EPA / Game
31
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
20
4th Down Efficiency
12
31
RZ Efficiency
1
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Packers
10-0
SU
8-2
ATS
7-3
O/U