TBBuccaneers
13-5
31
TBD
Lambeau Field
29°F
10 mph
26
GBPackers
14-3
TBD
Lambeau Field
29°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
7
14
7
3
31
Packers
0
10
13
3
26
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
53
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
351
381
Total Plays
61
70
Yards / Play
5.8
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.18
+0.07
Passing Yards
275
314
Comp/Att
20/36(56%)
33/49(67%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.26
+0.05
Rushing Yards
76
67
Rush Attempts
24
16
Yards / Rush
3.2
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.16
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
23
Passing 1st downs
12
19
Rushing 1st downs
4
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
64%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
9
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-9.78
-7.74
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-5
-32
Sack EPA
-1.99
-6.89
Penalties
2
4
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+45
Home nfelo
1,682
Away nfelo
1,659
Home Field
+7.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+10.2
Home QB Adjustment
+31.9
Away QB Adjustment
+21.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+21.7
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+31.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
15
Yards / Game
9
7
Passing Yards / Game
12
19
Rushing Yards / Game
25
10
EPA
EPA / Play
5
17
EPA / Pass
5
11
EPA / Rush
21
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
29
Interceptions / Game
15
15
Fumbles / Game
4
23
Turnover EPA / Game
22
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
14
4th Down Efficiency
13
19
RZ Efficiency
11
13
Packers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
7
Yards / Game
3
8
Passing Yards / Game
24
21
Rushing Yards / Game
8
1
EPA
EPA / Play
1
6
EPA / Pass
1
6
EPA / Rush
5
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
30
Interceptions / Game
1
3
Fumbles / Game
7
10
Turnover EPA / Game
32
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
17
4th Down Efficiency
9
13
RZ Efficiency
1
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Packers
9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U