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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. buccaneers @ packers week 20, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TB logo
TBBuccaneers
13-5
31
TBD
Lambeau Field
29°F
10 mph
26
GBPackers
14-3
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
29°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
7
14
7
3
31
Packers
0
10
13
3
26

Spread

TB logo
+3

Total

OVER
53

Game Statistics

General
Buccaneers logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
351
381
Total Plays
61
70
Yards / Play
5.8
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.18
+0.07
Passing Yards
275
314
Comp/Att
20/36(56%)
33/49(67%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.26
+0.05
Rushing Yards
76
67
Rush Attempts
24
16
Yards / Rush
3.2
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.16
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
Buccaneers logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
19
23
Passing 1st downs
12
19
Rushing 1st downs
4
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
64%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
9
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Buccaneers logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-9.78
-7.74
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-5
-32
Sack EPA
-1.99
-6.89
Penalties
2
4
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+49
Home nfelo
1,683
Away nfelo
1,656
Home Field
+7.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+10.2
Home QB Adjustment
+31.9
Away QB Adjustment
+21.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+21.7
Value
Ptile
11/08
-10.6
2
11/15
8.9
94
11/23
-2.9
24
11/29
3.2
68
12/13
1.6
55
12/20
2.6
64
12/26
7.4
91
01/03
4.6
77
01/09
2.1
59
01/17
2.3
62
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+31.9
Value
Ptile
11/05
9.8
96
11/15
4.1
74
11/22
6.3
85
11/29
8.1
92
12/06
4.7
77
12/13
8.9
94
12/19
-3.7
20
12/27
5.0
78
01/03
7.2
89
01/16
8.1
92

Team Matchup Ranks

Buccaneers Offense vs Packers Defense
Buccaneers logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
2
15
Yards / Game
9
7
Passing Yards / Game
12
19
Rushing Yards / Game
25
10

EPA

EPA / Play
5
17
EPA / Pass
5
11
EPA / Rush
21
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
29
Interceptions / Game
15
15
Fumbles / Game
4
23
Turnover EPA / Game
22
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
14
4th Down Efficiency
13
19
RZ Efficiency
11
13
Packers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Packers logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
1
7
Yards / Game
3
8
Passing Yards / Game
24
21
Rushing Yards / Game
8
1

EPA

EPA / Play
1
6
EPA / Pass
1
6
EPA / Rush
5
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
30
Interceptions / Game
1
3
Fumbles / Game
7
10
Turnover EPA / Game
32
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
17
4th Down Efficiency
9
13
RZ Efficiency
1
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TB logo

Buccaneers

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/08
-35
L
L
U
11/15
23
W
W
O
11/23
-3
L
L
O
11/29
-3
L
W
U
12/13
12
W
W
U
12/20
4
W
L
O
12/26
40
W
W
U
01/03
17
W
W
O
01/09
8
W
L
O
01/17
10
W
W
U
GB logo

Packers

9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/05
17
W
W
O
11/15
4
W
L
U
11/22
-3
L
L
O
11/29
16
W
W
O
12/06
14
W
W
U
12/13
7
W
L
U
12/19
8
W
L
U
12/27
26
W
W
O
01/03
19
W
W
O
01/16
14
W
W
O