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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. buccaneers @ panthers week 5, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TB logo
TBBuccaneers
1-3
17
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
66°F
7 mph
14
CARPanthers
1-3
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
66°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
3
3
8
3
17
Panthers
0
0
14
0
14

Spread

TB logo
+6

Total

UNDER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
Buccaneers logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
317
414
Total Plays
70
53
Yards / Play
4.5
7.8
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.08
Passing Yards
204
--
Comp/Att
18/31(58%)
18/28(64%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
--
EPA / Pass
+0.16
-0.02
Rushing Yards
113
136
Rush Attempts
37
25
Yards / Rush
3.1
5.4
EPA / Rush
-0.03
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
Buccaneers logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
20
20
Passing 1st downs
10
14
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
40%
13%
3rd Down Conversions
6
1
3rd Down Attempts
15
8
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Buccaneers logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
+5.41
-14.92
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-17
--
Sack EPA
-4.58
--
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
40
60
Penalty EPA
-7.37
-5.43

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CAR logo
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model62.4%
Spread Pick
TB logo
Buccaneers+6.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+7.7%
Cover Probability
55.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+40
Home nfelo
1,581
Away nfelo
1,426
Home Field
+31.9
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
-26.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-146.9
Home QB Adjustment
-152.1
Away QB Adjustment
-5.2
Market Regression
-12.5
Final Difference
87.8
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

J. Winston headshot

J. Winston

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-5.2
Value
Ptile
11/29
-4.0
21
12/06
1.8
63
12/13
-2.3
34
12/17
3.8
78
12/27
-0.2
49
01/03
0.4
52
09/11
6.6
88
09/18
-10.7
2
09/25
5.9
86
10/02
-8.3
4
D. Anderson headshot

D. Anderson

Proj. Value
-3.3
Team Elo Adj
-152.1
Value
Ptile
09/19
-7.3
9
09/26
-4.1
23
10/03
-10.2
4
11/07
-4.8
18
11/14
-4.2
22
11/21
0.7
53
11/29
-5.5
15
12/05
-8.2
6
09/07
3.7
75
12/14
0.1
50

Team Matchup Ranks

Buccaneers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Buccaneers logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
18
26
Yards / Game
18
21
Passing Yards / Game
13
32
Rushing Yards / Game
25
7

EPA

EPA / Play
18
11
EPA / Pass
9
17
EPA / Rush
28
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
14
Interceptions / Game
27
4
Fumbles / Game
25
8
Turnover EPA / Game
12
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
11
4th Down Efficiency
22
27
RZ Efficiency
21
2
Panthers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Panthers logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
15
15
Yards / Game
19
22
Passing Yards / Game
18
20
Rushing Yards / Game
10
22

EPA

EPA / Play
22
12
EPA / Pass
25
10
EPA / Rush
14
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
16
Interceptions / Game
28
4
Fumbles / Game
16
12
Turnover EPA / Game
5
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
1
4th Down Efficiency
7
31
RZ Efficiency
11
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TB logo

Buccaneers

2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/29
-13
L
L
U
12/06
4
W
W
U
12/13
-7
L
L
U
12/17
-8
L
L
O
12/27
-5
L
L
O
01/03
-28
L
L
O
09/11
7
W
W
O
09/18
-33
L
L
U
09/25
-5
L
L
O
10/02
-20
L
L
U
CAR logo

Panthers

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/20
3
W
L
O
12/27
-7
L
L
U
01/03
28
W
W
O
01/17
7
W
W
O
01/24
34
W
W
O
02/07
-14
L
L
U
09/08
-1
L
L
O
09/18
19
W
W
O
09/25
-12
L
L
U
10/02
-15
L
L
O