TBBuccaneers
1-3
17
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
66°F
7 mph
14
CARPanthers
1-3
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
66°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
3
3
8
3
17
Panthers
0
0
14
0
14
Spread
+6
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
317
414
Total Plays
70
53
Yards / Play
4.5
7.8
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.08
Passing Yards
204
--
Comp/Att
18/31(58%)
18/28(64%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
--
EPA / Pass
+0.16
-0.02
Rushing Yards
113
136
Rush Attempts
37
25
Yards / Rush
3.1
5.4
EPA / Rush
-0.03
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
20
Passing 1st downs
10
14
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
40%
13%
3rd Down Conversions
6
1
3rd Down Attempts
15
8
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
+5.41
-14.92
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-17
--
Sack EPA
-4.58
--
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
40
60
Penalty EPA
-7.37
-5.43
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model62.4%
Spread Pick
Buccaneers+6.0
Expected Value
+7.7%
Cover Probability
55.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+40
Home nfelo
1,582
Away nfelo
1,427
Home Field
+31.4
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-146.9
Home QB Adjustment
-152.1
Away QB Adjustment
-5.2
Market Regression
-12.4
Final Difference
88.1
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-5.2
D. Anderson
Proj. Value
-3.3
Team Elo Adj
-152.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
26
Yards / Game
18
21
Passing Yards / Game
13
32
Rushing Yards / Game
25
7
EPA
EPA / Play
18
11
EPA / Pass
9
17
EPA / Rush
28
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
14
Interceptions / Game
27
4
Fumbles / Game
25
8
Turnover EPA / Game
12
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
11
4th Down Efficiency
22
27
RZ Efficiency
21
2
Panthers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
15
Yards / Game
19
22
Passing Yards / Game
18
20
Rushing Yards / Game
10
22
EPA
EPA / Play
22
12
EPA / Pass
25
10
EPA / Rush
14
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
16
Interceptions / Game
28
4
Fumbles / Game
16
12
Turnover EPA / Game
5
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
1
4th Down Efficiency
7
31
RZ Efficiency
11
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U
Panthers
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U