nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. buccaneers @ panthers week 10, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

TB logo
TBBuccaneers
6-3
46
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
65°F
15 mph
23
CARPanthers
3-6
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
65°F
15 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
7
10
12
17
46
Panthers
14
3
0
6
23

Spread

TB logo
-6.5

Total

OVER
49.5

Game Statistics

General
Buccaneers logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
544
187
Total Plays
77
48
Yards / Play
7.1
3.9
EPA / Play
+0.34
-0.10
Passing Yards
334
122
Comp/Att
28/39(72%)
20/29(69%)
Yards / Pass
8.6
4.2
EPA / Pass
+0.60
-0.40
Rushing Yards
210
65
Rush Attempts
37
16
Yards / Rush
5.7
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.11
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
Buccaneers logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
30
13
Passing 1st downs
18
7
Rushing 1st downs
9
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
63%
11%
3rd Down Conversions
10
1
3rd Down Attempts
16
9
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
8
2
Negative Plays
Buccaneers logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.38
-4.76
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-7
-26
Sack EPA
-0.86
-6.23
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
30
40
Penalty EPA
-2.78
-2.30

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TB logo
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market71.4%
Model71.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-130
Home nfelo
1,444
Away nfelo
1,590
Home Field
+3.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+12.6
Home QB Adjustment
+23.1
Away QB Adjustment
+10.4
Market Regression
-13.4
Final Difference
-158.9
Model Spread
+6.5

Quarterbacks

T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+10.4
Value
Ptile
01/04
-4.3
23
09/13
-0.7
41
09/20
-0.4
43
09/27
3.9
72
10/04
8.9
94
10/08
-0.8
39
10/18
1.6
55
10/25
12.9
98
11/02
2.7
65
11/08
-10.6
2
T. Bridgewater headshot

T. Bridgewater

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+23.1
Value
Ptile
10/20
3.9
79
09/13
2.3
62
09/20
-2.1
29
09/27
2.0
58
10/04
6.4
86
10/11
4.7
77
10/18
-5.9
12
10/25
5.4
80
10/29
-5.7
12
11/08
9.8
96

Team Matchup Ranks

Buccaneers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Buccaneers logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
2
18
Yards / Game
9
16
Passing Yards / Game
12
14
Rushing Yards / Game
25
18

EPA

EPA / Play
5
25
EPA / Pass
5
21
EPA / Rush
21
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
16
Interceptions / Game
15
30
Fumbles / Game
4
1
Turnover EPA / Game
22
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
31
4th Down Efficiency
13
21
RZ Efficiency
11
21
Panthers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Panthers logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
24
7
Yards / Game
21
8
Passing Yards / Game
20
21
Rushing Yards / Game
20
1

EPA

EPA / Play
16
6
EPA / Pass
21
6
EPA / Rush
13
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
30
Interceptions / Game
27
3
Fumbles / Game
12
10
Turnover EPA / Game
21
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
17
4th Down Efficiency
20
13
RZ Efficiency
28
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TB logo

Buccaneers

6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/29
-6
L
L
O
09/13
-11
L
L
O
09/20
14
W
W
O
09/27
18
W
W
U
10/04
7
W
L
O
10/08
-1
L
L
U
10/18
28
W
W
U
10/25
25
W
W
O
11/02
2
W
L
O
11/08
-35
L
L
U
CAR logo

Panthers

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/29
-32
L
L
O
09/13
-4
L
L
O
09/20
-14
L
L
O
09/27
5
W
W
U
10/04
10
W
W
U
10/11
7
W
W
U
10/18
-7
L
L
U
10/25
-3
L
W
O
10/29
-8
L
L
U
11/08
-2
L
W
O