TBBuccaneers
6-3
46
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
65°F
15 mph
23
CARPanthers
3-6
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
65°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
7
10
12
17
46
Panthers
14
3
0
6
23
Spread
-6.5
Total
OVER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
544
187
Total Plays
77
48
Yards / Play
7.1
3.9
EPA / Play
+0.34
-0.10
Passing Yards
334
122
Comp/Att
28/39(72%)
20/29(69%)
Yards / Pass
8.6
4.2
EPA / Pass
+0.60
-0.40
Rushing Yards
210
65
Rush Attempts
37
16
Yards / Rush
5.7
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.11
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
30
13
Passing 1st downs
18
7
Rushing 1st downs
9
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
63%
11%
3rd Down Conversions
10
1
3rd Down Attempts
16
9
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
8
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.38
-4.76
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-7
-26
Sack EPA
-0.86
-6.23
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
30
40
Penalty EPA
-2.78
-2.30
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.4%
Model71.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-133
Home nfelo
1,443
Away nfelo
1,593
Home Field
+3.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+12.6
Home QB Adjustment
+23.1
Away QB Adjustment
+10.4
Market Regression
-13.4
Final Difference
-158.9
Model Spread
+6.5
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+10.4
T. Bridgewater
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+23.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
18
Yards / Game
9
16
Passing Yards / Game
12
14
Rushing Yards / Game
25
18
EPA
EPA / Play
5
25
EPA / Pass
5
21
EPA / Rush
21
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
16
Interceptions / Game
15
30
Fumbles / Game
4
1
Turnover EPA / Game
22
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
31
4th Down Efficiency
13
21
RZ Efficiency
11
21
Panthers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
7
Yards / Game
21
8
Passing Yards / Game
20
21
Rushing Yards / Game
20
1
EPA
EPA / Play
16
6
EPA / Pass
21
6
EPA / Rush
13
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
30
Interceptions / Game
27
3
Fumbles / Game
12
10
Turnover EPA / Game
21
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
17
4th Down Efficiency
20
13
RZ Efficiency
28
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Panthers
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U