TBBuccaneers
10-4
32
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
73°F
8 mph
6
CARPanthers
5-9
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
73°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
7
12
10
3
32
Panthers
3
3
0
0
6
Spread
-11
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
391
273
Total Plays
63
67
Yards / Play
6.2
4.1
EPA / Play
+0.19
-0.31
Passing Yards
--
206
Comp/Att
18/32(56%)
22/45(49%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.6
EPA / Pass
+0.28
-0.47
Rushing Yards
159
67
Rush Attempts
31
15
Yards / Rush
5.1
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.08
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
16
Passing 1st downs
12
10
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
50%
39%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
18
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.57
Sacks
--
7
Sack Yards
--
-45
Sack EPA
--
-12.19
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
50
32
Penalty EPA
-4.54
-2.51
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-11.5
Current
-11.0
Model
-11.0
Win Probability
Market82.5%
Model82.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-242
Home nfelo
1,405
Away nfelo
1,679
Home Field
+20.1
Base HFA
+36.5
Divisional Adj
-16.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+12.5
Home QB Adjustment
+18.8
Away QB Adjustment
+6.2
Market Regression
+8.6
Final Difference
-269.4
Model Spread
+11.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+6.2
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+18.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
20
Yards / Game
3
2
Passing Yards / Game
9
1
Rushing Yards / Game
26
18
EPA
EPA / Play
4
7
EPA / Pass
6
12
EPA / Rush
11
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
5
Interceptions / Game
9
27
Fumbles / Game
19
18
Turnover EPA / Game
29
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
8
4th Down Efficiency
17
18
RZ Efficiency
1
31
Panthers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
7
Yards / Game
30
15
Passing Yards / Game
29
31
Rushing Yards / Game
20
3
EPA
EPA / Play
32
4
EPA / Pass
32
4
EPA / Rush
17
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
31
Interceptions / Game
32
8
Fumbles / Game
13
4
Turnover EPA / Game
1
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
10
4th Down Efficiency
31
8
RZ Efficiency
25
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Panthers
2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U