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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. buccaneers @ panthers week 16, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TB logo
TBBuccaneers
10-4
32
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
73°F
8 mph
6
CARPanthers
5-9
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
73°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
7
12
10
3
32
Panthers
3
3
0
0
6

Spread

TB logo
-11

Total

UNDER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Buccaneers logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
391
273
Total Plays
63
67
Yards / Play
6.2
4.1
EPA / Play
+0.19
-0.31
Passing Yards
--
206
Comp/Att
18/32(56%)
22/45(49%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.6
EPA / Pass
+0.28
-0.47
Rushing Yards
159
67
Rush Attempts
31
15
Yards / Rush
5.1
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.08
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
Buccaneers logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
21
16
Passing 1st downs
12
10
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
50%
39%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
18
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Buccaneers logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.57
Sacks
--
7
Sack Yards
--
-45
Sack EPA
--
-12.19
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
50
32
Penalty EPA
-4.54
-2.51

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TB logo
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-11.5
Current
-11.0
Model
-11.0

Win Probability

Market82.5%
Model82.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-243
Home nfelo
1,402
Away nfelo
1,677
Home Field
+20.0
Base HFA
+36.5
Divisional Adj
-16.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+12.5
Home QB Adjustment
+18.8
Away QB Adjustment
+6.2
Market Regression
+8.6
Final Difference
-269.4
Model Spread
+11.0

Quarterbacks

T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+6.2
Value
Ptile
10/10
12.7
98
10/14
5.6
86
10/24
4.2
80
10/31
5.5
85
11/14
-1.7
41
11/22
2.8
74
11/28
-1.5
42
12/05
8.3
93
12/12
10.1
96
12/19
-8.2
7
C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+18.8
Value
Ptile
11/29
-11.5
2
12/06
1.4
54
12/10
-8.3
6
12/20
-2.3
27
12/28
-3.7
21
01/03
5.3
79
11/21
5.6
86
11/28
-13.7
1
12/12
-2.7
33
12/19
-2.4
35

Team Matchup Ranks

Buccaneers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Buccaneers logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
2
20
Yards / Game
3
2
Passing Yards / Game
9
1
Rushing Yards / Game
26
18

EPA

EPA / Play
4
7
EPA / Pass
6
12
EPA / Rush
11
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
5
Interceptions / Game
9
27
Fumbles / Game
19
18
Turnover EPA / Game
29
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
8
4th Down Efficiency
17
18
RZ Efficiency
1
31
Panthers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Panthers logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
29
7
Yards / Game
30
15
Passing Yards / Game
29
31
Rushing Yards / Game
20
3

EPA

EPA / Play
32
4
EPA / Pass
32
4
EPA / Rush
17
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
31
Interceptions / Game
32
8
Fumbles / Game
13
4
Turnover EPA / Game
1
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
10
4th Down Efficiency
31
8
RZ Efficiency
25
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TB logo

Buccaneers

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/10
28
W
W
O
10/14
6
W
L
U
10/24
35
W
W
U
10/31
-9
L
L
O
11/14
-10
L
L
U
11/22
20
W
W
U
11/28
7
W
W
O
12/05
13
W
W
U
12/12
6
W
W
O
12/19
-9
L
L
U
CAR logo

Panthers

2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/10
-3
L
L
U
10/17
-6
L
L
O
10/24
-22
L
L
U
10/31
6
W
W
U
11/07
-18
L
L
U
11/14
24
W
W
O
11/21
-6
L
L
O
11/28
-23
L
L
O
12/12
-8
L
L
O
12/19
-17
L
L
O